2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

All about the model scenarios during 2022 will be posted here. Let's see if there are upgrades to some of them.

[AlphaToOmega]

It is certainly intriguing that both global major global models (ECMWF and GFS) see a very slim chance of development around January 12 at 40W 30N. These might be bogus model runs, so we need to see more runs.

[HurricaneEnzo]

It is certainly intriguing that both global major global models (ECMWF and GFS) see a very slim chance of development around January 12 at 40W 30N. These might be bogus model runs, so we need to see more runs.

https://i.postimg.cc/hG3ScDPr/ecmwf-uv850-vort-atl-6.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Jhh1fDm0/gfs-z850-vort-atl-21.png

Obviously chances are low but how crazy would it be to get Alex in January for the 2nd time in a row?

[AnnularCane]

2016 repeat?

[Category5Kaiju]

If Alex just somehow does its usual thing and be this crazy anomaly and form in January again, then maybe we should just retire "Alex" and replace it with another A name like "Adam," "Arnold," or "Archer." Let's see if the List 2 A storm continues its uncanniness thing....oh wait, but we need Alex and Alex only to do that, getting rid of him would only minimize the fun

[Teban54]

If Alex just somehow does its usual thing and be this crazy anomaly and form in January again, then maybe we should just retire "Alex" and replace it with another A name like "Adam," "Arnold," or "Archer." Let's see if the List 2 A storm continues its uncanniness thing....oh wait, but we need Alex and Alex only to do that, getting rid of him would only minimize the fun

Make Alex a female name and move it to another list instead.

[aspen]

The Azores storm shows up on the 12z GFS, CMC, and ICON. The 12z Euro hasn’t loaded up that much yet.

I’m starting to regret being one of the three people to put “no” on the Alex poll…

[Teban54]

The Azores storm shows up on the 12z GFS, CMC, and ICON. The 12z Euro hasn’t loaded up that much yet.

I’m starting to regret being one of the three people to put “no” on the Alex poll…

12z Euro has it too.

[cycloneye]

I may have to close the Alex poll much earlier than March 31rst.

[AlphaToOmega]

The 18Z GFS does not develop this. This might have been nothing but a false positive.

[aspen]

The 18Z GFS does not develop this. This might have been nothing but a false positive.

ICON is stronger, and this is just one model run. The vorticity that developed into a TC on the 06z and 12z runs is still there.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm just ready to grab my popcorn and watch 2022 pull another 2016 and be the 8th consecutive season to have a NS before June 1 (oh, and I do wonder whether such an event would hypothetically cause the WMO to decide to change to official start date of the Atlantic season to May 15..)

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF very weak with it.

[AlphaToOmega]

The 06Z GFS and the 00Z CMC both solidly develop this system. The 00Z ECMWF and 06Z ICON both barely develop this system. This system is all but gone on the 00Z ECENS ensembles; the 06Z GEFS ensembles actually have not loaded yet. Regardless, chances were always very slim for development; the ECMWF gave this system a 5-10% chance of developing into a tropical storm.

[aspen]

00z ECMWF very weak with it.

https://i.imgur.com/nG2vlSF.gif

We might have another area to watch for development a few days after this first disturbance, going northbound from the Greater Antilles. The GFS shows it too.

[AlphaToOmega]

There is more model disagreement; the GFS, ECMWF, and ICON all develop this system; but the CMC refuses to develop it. As the 12Z GFS sees it, this system will form as an area of disturbed weather on January 9, detach from an extratropical low on January 10, and become a (sub)tropical cyclone on January 11. However, given the time of year, the marginal SSTs for development, and the lack of strong model consensus, development is still very unlikely; but it is still within the realm of possibility. If things get interesting, the NHC might mark a lemon for this system.

In 6-7 days, another area of low pressure around 70W 35N might try to develop into a (sub)tropical cyclone. According to the 12Z GFS, a disorganized set of thunderstorms will move off the coast of South Carolina on January 13 and form a bona fide tropical cyclone a day later. SSTs are more only marginal for subtropical development, and given the time of the year, development is unlikely. However, it is another area of potential development.





Realistically, neither system will probably develop. The ECMWF gives both systems a 5-10% chance of development each, which means that the chance of neither system developing is 81.00-90.25%.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has it a little bit more strong.

[Hurricane2021]

 https://twitter.com/miguel__crf/status/1482344015945162752

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/miguel__crf/status/1482344015945162752?t=qz_tEzls8pIA-pb6BjtRoA&s=19

 https://twitter.com/miguel__crf/status/1482344015945162752




I fixed it for you

[Hurricanehink]

What is the latest from the models about the south west Indian ocean? We are close to record territory for the latest beginning to a season there.