BoB: 93B - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

93B INVEST 220519 1200 15.2N 96.4E IO 15

[MHC Tracking]

This seems to be developing relatively quickly based on latest trends on IR. Definitely has a relatively strong MLC, but we'll see if it can drill that down to the surface. Wouldn't be surprised to see a brief TC out of this.

[doomhaMwx]

I did notice this system before it was tagged as an invest. Good to see that it's now being monitored.

 https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1527273911217713152

[doomhaMwx]

Possibly a tropical storm now. Deep convection has become more centralized over a well-defined LLCC as shown by radar from Yangon, and add that impressive mid-level circ shown by microwave.

[doomhaMwx]

WTIO21 PGTW 200030

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.2N 96.4E, AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 96.6E, APPROXIMATELY 63
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. ALTHOUGH CLOSE TO LAND, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE INVEST IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW.
INVEST 93B IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF MARTABAN,
BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL MONSOON
SOUTHWESTERLIES. GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS GENERAL MOTION, BUT DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL IN
MYANMAR. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT INVEST 93B WILL INTENSIFY PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27-32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[Grifforzer]

IMD has it as a well marked low pressure area. No mention of it intensifying further into a depression in the 05:30 AM IST morning bulletin.

TCIN50 DEMS 200000
SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT-3D PIC OF 200000 UTC (.)
REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0ºN TO 30.0ºS AND LONG 40.0ºE TO 125.0ºE (.)
SALIENT FEATURES:-

VORTEX (WML) OVER GULF OF MARTABAN AND N/HOOD :-
LLC OVER GULF OF MARTABAN AND N/HOOD HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A VORTEX AND NOW LAY CENTRED WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF 15.6N/96.7E (.) INTENSITY T1.0 (.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER GULF OF MARTABAN ADJ S MYANMAR NORTH ANDAMAN SEA ADJ EC BAY ARAKAN COAST (MINIMUM CTT -93 DEG CEL)

[Grifforzer]

depression according to India Meteorological Department now

"BOB04-2022"

[doomhaMwx]

93B has made landfall over Mon State in SE Myanmar. Two nearby stations recorded a SLP of about 997mb and winds of about 20kts at 09Z. Unfortunately, scatterometers missed the system today so it's uncertain how strong its winds really were prior to landfall.




As 93B is expected to continue moving inland, JTWC has canceled its TCFA on the system. I guess they were waiting for a scatterometer pass to initiate an upgrade. Were the satellite, radar, and microwave data from earlier today not convincing enough though?