ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs here.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Gfs says major into Long Island. While unlikely, that does signify that the gfs says conditions are favorable. So much for 2013

[tolakram]

Latest model runs from GFS, Euro, and CMC. Note that 6Z GFS is a big change from 0Z which faded 97 and also developed a storm off the east coast. Always a good idea to ignore most model output past 5 days. In my opinion the Euro looks unrealistic, losing most of the vorticity.

[SFLcane]

[chaser1]

Pre-season games are over; Welcome to the real Hurricane Season folks. Regardless of any other global model support (excluding ensembles), i'm willing to hang my hat on a few consistent mid-August GFS model runs. What is interesting is how quickly updating GFS runs are showing a significantly more westward overall track as opposed to earlier run recurves. Then again, this IS August. All in all, 97L looks to remain a smallish tropical cyclone but if it survives the journey - I'm more apt to consider a potential risk even further south then current GFS long long range projection (Carolina's to Fla.). Time to see if EURO ensembles begin to slowly increase their development signals over the next few days

[kevin]

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1556619215884410884

[Emmett_Brown]

Water vapor imagery shows a large area of dry air still in its path. I do think this wave has a good chance to develop, but it may take a while. I think the GFS is still too quick to develop 97L.

[AutoPenalti]

I going to slide with the slow development with a bit of Euro.

Dry air will likely be what inhibits any sort of development, conditions aren't favorable just yet.

[tolakram]

I'm also in the GFS with a side of Euro camp. The Euro does keep a bit of vorticity but moves the wave due west, or moves the vorticity from east to a wave in front to the west. Seems like we should see if this verifies pretty soon compared the the GFS more rapid development prediction.

6Z Euro

[ScottNAtlanta]

Pre-season games are over; Welcome to the real Hurricane Season folks. Regardless of any other global model support (excluding ensembles), i'm willing to hang my hat on a few consistent mid-August GFS model runs. What is interesting is how quickly updating GFS runs are showing a significantly more westward overall track as opposed to earlier run recurves. Then again, this IS August. All in all, 97L looks to remain a smallish tropical cyclone but if it survives the journey - I'm more apt to consider a potential risk even further south then current GFS long long range projection (Carolina's to Fla.). Time to see if EURO ensembles begin to slowly increase their development signals over the next few days

That is significant since the GFS has always had a northward bias in Eastern Atlantic early tracks. It usually takes a while before it starts moving west

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1556682896915644417

[Nimbus]

12Z GFS keeps a surface low moving WNW till hour 192 where it shows a weak 1012 low north of 22N.
Then in hour 198 it depicts a low over the Dominican Republic

Made me look..
Dry air weak and west is the usual track.

[captainbarbossa19]

Is it just me or is this trough starting to retrograde west?

[floridasun]

we should wait when we closer and 200 hours to see how models look like than

[captainbarbossa19]

we should wait when we closer and 200 hours to see how models look like than

I agree, but my point is that this may not necessarily be an OTS storm. It's too far out and a lot can change in 1 week.

[Blown Away]

Clearly the 12z Euro showed a stall @24N/65W and deepened at @240 hrs. It’s long range, but a winter like trough might be overdone in mid August?

[Spacecoast]

FSU Genesis prob (12z):

ECMF Genesis (12z):

track density:

GEFS (12Z):

[Nimbus]

Clearly the 12z Euro showed a stall @24N/65W and deepened at @240 hrs. It’s long range, but a winter like trough might be overdone in mid August?

If there is a deepening system stalled north of 24N even a short wave would dig to pick it up.
The shear might keep it from intensifying further but with its forward speed the eastern quadrants could be a threat to Bermuda or the Canadian maritime.

I'm still wondering if it will dry out west of -35W and continue weak and west.
Still forecast to miss the islands and leave them on the weak side of the storm but that could change.