ATL: FOUR - Models

[LarryWx]

By comparing the track density over the Bay of Campeche (using Weathernerds) for the last 4 EPS runs, one can clearly see a trend for an increase in the # of members with 20-30 knot surface lows forming in the S Bay of Campeche by tomorrow before heading into NE MX on Saturday. Yesterday's 18Z only had 2 followed by ~10 on today's 0Z and 6Z. The 12Z just out has ~15.

[LarryWx]

So there is no way this is coming to Texas? But you better start building an ark according to euro!!!

The northern edge of the rain shield should reach the S coast of TX, regardless. Regarding the low center, until and if it is established, the models are going to have trouble with track. Per the last 4 runs of EPS fwiw: none of the 12Z, 6Z, and 18Z member surface low centers is closer than 100 miles south of the S tip of TX. However, one of the 0Z EPS low centers crossed right at the MX/TX border.

[cycloneye]

Hi Larrywx. To let you know that I made your post at the 99L discussion thread about the models as the leading post for the 99L models thread.

[Nimbus]

12Z GFS and GEM don't know what to do with the wave in the Bay of Campeche so they take it into the Pacific.
I'm waiting for low pressure to reach the BOC so the models can initialize.
Hope they didn't waste 99L on a Pacific wave.

[Wampadawg]

1800 ICON takes the moisture up to meet the EURO ‘s arkbuilding forecast in Texas ,got to get working on that ark

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GEFS

[Nimbus]

18Z GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/Yv6xL4B.png

Confusing because it states valid Sunday 8/28.
But the 1010 track looks a little far north southern tracks might be 99L.

[LarryWx]

18Z GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/Yv6xL4B.png

Confusing because it states valid Sunday 8/28.
But the 1010 track looks a little far north southern tracks might be 99L.

Good eye. The 1005 and 999 are about 10 days out.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/Yv6xL4B.png

Confusing because it states valid Sunday 8/28.
But the 1010 track looks a little far north southern tracks might be 99L.

Good eye. The 1005 and 999 are about 10 days out.

lol your right its a different system. I didn't see it at first because it was in the same spot as 99L. Here is a updated image.

[cycloneye]

[ronjon]

With that track consensus above, looks like 48 hrs over the warm waters of the BOC. Plenty of time to develop into a strong tropical storm or CAT 1 hurricane.

[oldframe]

Which model runs will be the first to ingest today's recon data? Might they latch on to this system better once that data makes its way into the magic voodoo algorithms?