96S INVEST 221201 0000 7.7S 65.8E SHEM 15 1006
SIO: INVEST 96S
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9278
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: SIO: INVEST 96S
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT FLARING
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 06433Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE REVEALED A
WINDFIELD OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE PRESUMED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE
CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AIDED
BY A SMALL POINT SOURCE ABOVE IT AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH,
WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND SLOWLY BE ENGULFED BY
INTENSE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 06433Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE REVEALED A
WINDFIELD OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE PRESUMED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE
CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AIDED
BY A SMALL POINT SOURCE ABOVE IT AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH,
WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND SLOWLY BE ENGULFED BY
INTENSE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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