ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 99, 2023112012, , BEST, 0, 140N, 731W, 20, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 80, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 048, SPAWNINVEST, al742023 to al992023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/Q9HUS7f.gif

Again?

[cycloneye]

Circulation exposed.

[cycloneye]

Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Earlier satellite wind data indicated that a small but well-defined
area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea was producing
winds of 25-30 mph. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity with this system remains disorganized, and nearby dry air
is forecast to prevent much additional development as the system
begins to drift slowly westward over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[ThunderForce]

Is it just me or do they keep moving the yellow X in the formation area more and more eastward with each successive update?

[Landy]

Is it just me or do they keep moving the yellow X in the formation area more and more eastward with each successive update?

They are, it's been moving eastward throughout the day.

[Landy]

Not bad.

[REDHurricane]

A bit of convection starting to pop up around the LLC, still needs to get more organized at the mid/upper levels if it's going to develop though -- shear environment is pretty favorable however so I wouldn't completely discount this system just yet

[ChrisH-UK]

I wonder why 99L is still yellow as it has a good circulation and has plenty of convection.

Source - https://col.st/J33mQ

[Hurricane2022]

I wonder why 99L is still yellow as it has a good circulation and has plenty of convection.

Source - https://col.st/J33mQ

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5020/YA0oP0.gif [/url]

That's because the models shows nothing coming from this system. GFS shows only a very small and weak circulation in the 18Z init.
Since this is a small system with bad initialization of the models, there is a (low) chance of 99L surprising us

[cycloneye]

Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a small low pressure area. Although the
thunderstorm activity has recently increased over the southwestern
portion of the low, nearby dry air is forecast to prevent much
additional development of the system as it begins to drift slowly
westward over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Is it just me or do they keep moving the yellow X in the formation area more and more eastward with each successive update?

Has been moving eastward today and still at 00z, has the position more east.

AL, 99, 2023112012, , BEST, 0, 140N, 729W, 20, 1008, LO
AL, 99, 2023112018, , BEST, 0, 140N, 720W, 25, 1008, LO
AL, 99, 2023112100, , BEST, 0, 138N, 717W, 25, 1008, LO

[REDHurricane]

I wonder why 99L is still yellow as it has a good circulation and has plenty of convection.

Source - https://col.st/J33mQ

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5020/YA0oP0.gif [/url]

That's because the models shows nothing coming from this system. GFS shows only a very small and weak circulation in the 18Z init.
Since this is a small system with bad initialization of the models, there is a (low) chance of 99L surprising us

00z ICON maaaaaaaaaybe starting to pick up on some development? Still a very weak signal at the moment, but since ICON is usually better at sniffing out these small systems compared to the GFS/Euro/CMC it's not completely out of the realm of possibility for 99L to pull a fast one on us over the next several days given the favorable environment. 10% does seem a tad low for a system with a defined LLC and some scattered convection (I'd say closer to 20%), but 40% would be too high until there's at least some additional data/model support to back it up imo

[ChrisH-UK]

I wonder why 99L is still yellow as it has a good circulation and has plenty of convection.

Source - https://col.st/J33mQ

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5020/YA0oP0.gif [/url]

That's because the models shows nothing coming from this system. GFS shows only a very small and weak circulation in the 18Z init.
Since this is a small system with bad initialization of the models, there is a (low) chance of 99L surprising us

Yep the global models are too big at times and lack the spatial and temporal resolution to detect small short life storms. It also complicate matters with the some of hurricane models use the GFS to feed in the data.

[Hurricane2022]

Dry air (and Niño too) Win. So far.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a small area of low pressure. Nearby dry air
is forecast to prevent additional significant development of the
system as it begins to drift slowly westward during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Bye.

Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak low pressure over
the central Caribbean have diminished since yesterday. Nearby dry
air is forecast to prevent any additional development of the system
as it moves slowly westward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.