SPAC: INVEST 96P

[Subtrop]

96P INVEST 240218 1800 14.6S 171.9W SHEM 20 1004

[cycloneye]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.9S
171.1W, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190831Z
METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION) OBSCURED BY PERISTENT CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE AFORMENTIONED ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS RESIDE IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
96P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THOUGH GLOBAL
DETERMINSITIC MODELS HAVE BEEN TOGGLING DEVELOPMENT FROM ONE MODEL
RUN TO THE NEXT, GLOBAL NUMERICAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUTES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.