ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 99, 2024090512, , BEST, 0, 336N, 695W, 30, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 130, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al712024 to al992024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal992024.dat

[REDHurricane]

We did it!!!

[Sciencerocks]

Wouldn't take much for this to be upgraded. Just some refocusing of the convection over the LLC! Maybe a short lived subtropical system could form....

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Unexpectedly heavy rain in Bermuda last night and through this morning!

[AnnularCane]

I still say the Caribbean wave is the REAL 99L.

[zal0phus]

Calling it, this will steal Francine

[MGC]

Lots of shear over 99L. We shall see.....MGC

[Ubuntwo]

Hmm, 20%?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Hmm, 20%?
https://i.imgur.com/g8tLg7m.png

I think the 20% means "this really snuck up on us so we're easing into it"

[kevin]

I think this one will get the name Francine, most models now show this becoming a STS over the next 24 - 36 hrs before becoming extra-tropical.

[Teban54]

Up to 30/30.

2. Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles east of North Carolina, and recent satellite data
indicates the system is producing winds to near gale-force. This
system could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics
over the next day or two while it moves generally
north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United
States. Once the low moves over cooler waters by early Saturday,
further development is not expected. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Hammy]

Naked swirl, all the convection's been completely blown off in the last hour or so

[Ubuntwo]

https://i.imgur.com/bb5jTAx.png

Naked swirl, all the convection's been completely blown off in the last hour or so

We're fast approaching diurnal minimum, my guess is convection refires tomorrow morning and that will be this system's best shot at a designation.

[Frank P]

Naked swirls do not make a named system, for the love of all things put some clothes on gurlie.... if she wants to be Francine

[mpic]

We seem to have two separate threads on the same storm? I am.obviously confused. Sorry.

[LadyBug72]

We seem to have two separate threads on the same storm? I am.obviously confused. Sorry.

No. 99L is by NC/VA and 90L is in the GOM

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
A gale-force, non-tropical area of low pressure centered a few
hundred miles east of North Carolina is producing showers and
thunderstorms with some signs of organization to the east of its
center. This system could acquire some tropical or subtropical
characteristics over the next day or two while it moves generally
north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United
States. The low is expected to move over cooler waters and become
associated with fronts by early Saturday, and further development is
not expected. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Ubuntwo]

99L is looking decidedly nontropical this morning.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I don't know, the center of circulation is under some persistent convection. I think there is a chance they name this as a subtopical storm.

[wxman57]

Looks like a frontal low. Models have an occluded low moving into NS. Not tropical.