BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Edisto Beach, South
Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the non-tropical low pressure system off the South Carolina coast
has a broad low-level circulation center, but could be in the
process of reforming closer to the mid-level circulation currently
seen on radar from Wilmington, NC. However, the system may not have
yet completely shed its frontal characteristics. Since there is deep
convection over and around the center, it is becoming more
likely the cyclone could become either a tropical or subtropical
cyclone within the next day or so. Therefore the disturbance is
being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight at this time
with an initial intensity of 40 kt.
There has been significant uncertainty in the center positions since
last night, and the best guess at initial motion is northwestward or
320/6 kt. Over the next couple of days, the disturbance is expected
to be steered by the flow on the southern or southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure system over the northeastern United States.
This motion should bring the center inland over the southeastern
U.S. coast in 24 hours or so. The NHC forecast track is close to
the simple and corrected dynamical consensus model solutions.
the system will be traversing warm waters for the next 24 hours or
so and it may be situated within an area of relatively low shear
near the axis of an upper-level trough. Therefore some
strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast
is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance.
Key Messages:
1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is
expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy
rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast
United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next
couple of days.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical
Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night.
3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban
flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is
also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the
Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 32.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 16/0600Z 32.4N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 16/1800Z 33.1N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 34.1N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 17/1800Z 35.4N 80.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 18/0600Z 36.7N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 18/1800Z 37.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
ATL; PTC EIGHT - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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ATL; PTC EIGHT - Advisories
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL; EIGHT - Advisories
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
32.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The system has been moving
erratically this evening, but the disturbance is expected to start
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) overnight. On the
forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast
within the warning area on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or
tomorrow morning and some strengthening is possible before the
system makes landfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
32.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The system has been moving
erratically this evening, but the disturbance is expected to start
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) overnight. On the
forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast
within the warning area on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or
tomorrow morning and some strengthening is possible before the
system makes landfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL; EIGHT - Advisories
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
The Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) has become a bit better
organized tonight, with deep convection on the northeast side of the
circulation. Additionally, the last aircraft pass just north of the
estimated center of the system indicated that the temperature
gradient from east-to-west had weakened. However, it is still
unclear whether a well-defined center exists looking at the latest
satellite and radar animations, with the center that the plane found
earlier looking somewhat elongated. For now, the system will remain
a Potential Tropical Cyclone, and the winds are set to 40 kt. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the area
overnight for a better look at the system's structure.
It appears the system has only drifted northwest since this
afternoon. The PTC should move a bit faster to the northwest on
Monday and Tuesday due to flow from a ridge over the northeastern
United States. There is general agreement on this track in the
models, though they differ on the speed. The new forecast is
trended a bit slower than the last one, but not as slow as the
ECMWF model.
The system has a high chance of being a tropical cyclone early
tomorrow, and some strengthening is possible before landfall as it
moves over warm waters with a conducive upper-level trough
interaction. The official forecast is similar to the latest
decay-SHIPS model guidance and the prior forecast.
Key Messages:
1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is
expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy
rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast
United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next
couple of days.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical
Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night.
3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban
flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is
also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the
Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 32.2N 77.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 16/1200Z 32.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 17/0000Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 34.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 18/0000Z 35.5N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 18/1200Z 36.6N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 19/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
The Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) has become a bit better
organized tonight, with deep convection on the northeast side of the
circulation. Additionally, the last aircraft pass just north of the
estimated center of the system indicated that the temperature
gradient from east-to-west had weakened. However, it is still
unclear whether a well-defined center exists looking at the latest
satellite and radar animations, with the center that the plane found
earlier looking somewhat elongated. For now, the system will remain
a Potential Tropical Cyclone, and the winds are set to 40 kt. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the area
overnight for a better look at the system's structure.
It appears the system has only drifted northwest since this
afternoon. The PTC should move a bit faster to the northwest on
Monday and Tuesday due to flow from a ridge over the northeastern
United States. There is general agreement on this track in the
models, though they differ on the speed. The new forecast is
trended a bit slower than the last one, but not as slow as the
ECMWF model.
The system has a high chance of being a tropical cyclone early
tomorrow, and some strengthening is possible before landfall as it
moves over warm waters with a conducive upper-level trough
interaction. The official forecast is similar to the latest
decay-SHIPS model guidance and the prior forecast.
Key Messages:
1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is
expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy
rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast
United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next
couple of days.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical
Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night.
3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban
flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is
also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the
Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 32.2N 77.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 16/1200Z 32.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 17/0000Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 34.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 18/0000Z 35.5N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 18/1200Z 36.6N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 19/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL; EIGHT - Advisories
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
The structure of the area of low pressure off the coast of South
Carolina has seemingly become less organized during the past few
hours. Proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the
low-level circulation is elongated from northeast to southwest, and
the center has not become well defined. The associated deep
convection has a generally linear orientation and has been
displaced farther to the north and east of the center due to strong
upper-level winds. Lastly, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft still measured a 2-3 degree Celsius temperature difference
at 850 mb from north to south, indicating that the frontal boundary
is diffuse but not totally gone. Therefore, the low is still not a
tropical or subtropical cyclone. That said, the plane measured a
peak wind of 54 kt at 6000 ft in the convection well northeast of
the center, suggesting that the current intensity is about 45 kt.
The low is drifting northwestward (325 degrees) at 3 kt, gradually
approaching the South Carolina coast. A faster motion toward the
northwest is expected to occur today as the low moves between
mid-level high pressure over the northeastern U.S. and a trough
over the southeastern U.S. The NHC track forecast shows the low
crossing the coast later this afternoon, which is shown by most of
the track models. The GFS remains the notable outlier since it
initialized the low too far to the northwest and consequently has
it crossing the coast around sunrise. After moving inland, the low
is expected to continue moving slowly northwestward and then
northward over the Carolinas through Wednesday. The new track
forecast has been nudged westward from the previous forecast,
although there is a modest amount of uncertainty given the
ill-defined nature of the center.
The chances of the system becoming a tropical or subtropical
cyclone may be starting to decrease given the current structure, and
since it only has another 12 hours or so before moving inland.
Most of the intensity guidance also suggests that the maximum winds
should gradually decrease as the low approaches the coast, although
tropical-storm-force winds are still expected to occur within the
warning areas today. Further weakening is forecast after the
system moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over the Carolinas
by late Wednesday.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical
Storm Warning area through this evening.
2. The system will bring the potential for locally considerable
flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across southeast
North Carolina and northeast South Carolina through tonight. There
is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of
the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday.
3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of
the southeastern U.S. coast over the next day or two.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
The structure of the area of low pressure off the coast of South
Carolina has seemingly become less organized during the past few
hours. Proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the
low-level circulation is elongated from northeast to southwest, and
the center has not become well defined. The associated deep
convection has a generally linear orientation and has been
displaced farther to the north and east of the center due to strong
upper-level winds. Lastly, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft still measured a 2-3 degree Celsius temperature difference
at 850 mb from north to south, indicating that the frontal boundary
is diffuse but not totally gone. Therefore, the low is still not a
tropical or subtropical cyclone. That said, the plane measured a
peak wind of 54 kt at 6000 ft in the convection well northeast of
the center, suggesting that the current intensity is about 45 kt.
The low is drifting northwestward (325 degrees) at 3 kt, gradually
approaching the South Carolina coast. A faster motion toward the
northwest is expected to occur today as the low moves between
mid-level high pressure over the northeastern U.S. and a trough
over the southeastern U.S. The NHC track forecast shows the low
crossing the coast later this afternoon, which is shown by most of
the track models. The GFS remains the notable outlier since it
initialized the low too far to the northwest and consequently has
it crossing the coast around sunrise. After moving inland, the low
is expected to continue moving slowly northwestward and then
northward over the Carolinas through Wednesday. The new track
forecast has been nudged westward from the previous forecast,
although there is a modest amount of uncertainty given the
ill-defined nature of the center.
The chances of the system becoming a tropical or subtropical
cyclone may be starting to decrease given the current structure, and
since it only has another 12 hours or so before moving inland.
Most of the intensity guidance also suggests that the maximum winds
should gradually decrease as the low approaches the coast, although
tropical-storm-force winds are still expected to occur within the
warning areas today. Further weakening is forecast after the
system moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over the Carolinas
by late Wednesday.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical
Storm Warning area through this evening.
2. The system will bring the potential for locally considerable
flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across southeast
North Carolina and northeast South Carolina through tonight. There
is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of
the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday.
3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of
the southeastern U.S. coast over the next day or two.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL; EIGHT - Advisories
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 78.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 78.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL; PTC EIGHT - Advisories
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring off the
Carolina coast has not become better organized this morning. The
low-level circulation remains elongated and not well defined, based
on overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and recent
visible satellite images. The flight-level temperature data from the
aircraft also suggested a frontal boundary remains in close
proximity to the low, which is consistent with the cloud pattern of
the system. The strongest winds and heaviest rains lie to the north
and northeast of the estimated center and are currently spreading
across southeastern North Carolina. Based on surface synoptic
observations, the initial intensity is set at 45 kt.
Aircraft data and satellite images indicate the elongated center
lies a bit north of previous estimates, with an uncertain initial
motion of north-northwestward at 4 kt. This general motion should
continue today, bringing the center toward the coast of South
Carolina and inland within the warning area later today. However, it
should be noted that much of the hazardous weather conditions extend
well to the northeast of the center and are currently moving onshore
over the Cape Fear region of North Carolina. A northwestward motion
is forecast to continue over land while the weakening low spins
down. The updated NHC track forecast lies a bit to the right of the
previous prediction based on the latest track consensus aids.
With limited time before it moves inland, the chances of this system
becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone continue to decrease. The
intensity guidance shows quick weakening once the low crosses the
coastline, and the official NHC intensity forecast brings the system
down to 30 kt in 12 h, on the lower end of the guidance envelope but
consistent with the global model fields. Weakening should continue
through dissipation, which is forecast to occur on Wednesday.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical
Storm Warning area during the next several hours.
2. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river
flooding is possible across southeast North Carolina and northeast
South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated
flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region
through Wednesday.
3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of
the southeastern U.S. coast through this afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 32.9N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 33.7N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/1200Z 34.3N 79.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/0000Z 35.0N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring off the
Carolina coast has not become better organized this morning. The
low-level circulation remains elongated and not well defined, based
on overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and recent
visible satellite images. The flight-level temperature data from the
aircraft also suggested a frontal boundary remains in close
proximity to the low, which is consistent with the cloud pattern of
the system. The strongest winds and heaviest rains lie to the north
and northeast of the estimated center and are currently spreading
across southeastern North Carolina. Based on surface synoptic
observations, the initial intensity is set at 45 kt.
Aircraft data and satellite images indicate the elongated center
lies a bit north of previous estimates, with an uncertain initial
motion of north-northwestward at 4 kt. This general motion should
continue today, bringing the center toward the coast of South
Carolina and inland within the warning area later today. However, it
should be noted that much of the hazardous weather conditions extend
well to the northeast of the center and are currently moving onshore
over the Cape Fear region of North Carolina. A northwestward motion
is forecast to continue over land while the weakening low spins
down. The updated NHC track forecast lies a bit to the right of the
previous prediction based on the latest track consensus aids.
With limited time before it moves inland, the chances of this system
becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone continue to decrease. The
intensity guidance shows quick weakening once the low crosses the
coastline, and the official NHC intensity forecast brings the system
down to 30 kt in 12 h, on the lower end of the guidance envelope but
consistent with the global model fields. Weakening should continue
through dissipation, which is forecast to occur on Wednesday.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical
Storm Warning area during the next several hours.
2. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river
flooding is possible across southeast North Carolina and northeast
South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated
flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region
through Wednesday.
3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of
the southeastern U.S. coast through this afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 32.9N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 33.7N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/1200Z 34.3N 79.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/0000Z 35.0N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL; PTC EIGHT - Advisories
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 78.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet,
North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next few hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
33.1 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwestward motion is
expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the low
will reach the coast of South Carolina by this evening and then
move inland across the Carolinas tonight through early Wednesday.
Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued
weakening is expected during the next day or so, especially after
the system moves inland. The low is forecast to dissipate over the
Carolinas by early Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A NOS station at Wrightsville Beach, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and
a gust of 40 mph (65 km/h). A C-MAN station at Masonboro Inlet,
North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 32 mph (52
km/h) and a gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 78.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet,
North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next few hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
33.1 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwestward motion is
expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the low
will reach the coast of South Carolina by this evening and then
move inland across the Carolinas tonight through early Wednesday.
Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued
weakening is expected during the next day or so, especially after
the system moves inland. The low is forecast to dissipate over the
Carolinas by early Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A NOS station at Wrightsville Beach, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and
a gust of 40 mph (65 km/h). A C-MAN station at Masonboro Inlet,
North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 32 mph (52
km/h) and a gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
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Re: ATL; PTC EIGHT - Advisories
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Scatterometer data earlier today showed a very elongated surface
circulation with frontal features extending from the low, confirming
the non-tropical structure of the system. In fact, current
observations show a significant temperature and dewpoint gradient
remains along the boundary. Based on radar data and surface
observations, the poorly-defined low center is likely near the coast
or just inland over northeastern South Carolina. Although it failed
to develop a well-defined center and the necessary organization to
become a tropical cyclone, the low has produced significant impacts
today, with life-threatening flash flooding reported in portions of
southeastern North Carolina and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph along
the coast. Another band of heavy rainfall is currently moving
onshore over the Cape Fear region, with heavy rains also spreading
farther inland. Recent surface observations show the sustained winds
have diminished below tropical storm force, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt.
The system is moving north-northwestward at about 6 kt. This motion
will bring the system farther inland over the Carolinas tonight and
Tuesday, where it is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate.
Although the wind threat has subsided, heavy rainfall and flash
flooding remain a serious concern for portions of the Carolinas. For
more information on this system, see products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office.
Since the system is no longer producing sustained
tropical-storm-force winds, the Tropical Storm Warnings for the
Carolinas have been discontinued. Therefore, this will be the final
NHC advisory on the system.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Scatterometer data earlier today showed a very elongated surface
circulation with frontal features extending from the low, confirming
the non-tropical structure of the system. In fact, current
observations show a significant temperature and dewpoint gradient
remains along the boundary. Based on radar data and surface
observations, the poorly-defined low center is likely near the coast
or just inland over northeastern South Carolina. Although it failed
to develop a well-defined center and the necessary organization to
become a tropical cyclone, the low has produced significant impacts
today, with life-threatening flash flooding reported in portions of
southeastern North Carolina and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph along
the coast. Another band of heavy rainfall is currently moving
onshore over the Cape Fear region, with heavy rains also spreading
farther inland. Recent surface observations show the sustained winds
have diminished below tropical storm force, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt.
The system is moving north-northwestward at about 6 kt. This motion
will bring the system farther inland over the Carolinas tonight and
Tuesday, where it is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate.
Although the wind threat has subsided, heavy rainfall and flash
flooding remain a serious concern for portions of the Carolinas. For
more information on this system, see products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office.
Since the system is no longer producing sustained
tropical-storm-force winds, the Tropical Storm Warnings for the
Carolinas have been discontinued. Therefore, this will be the final
NHC advisory on the system.
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