Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa
on Sunday or Monday. Gradual subsequent development of this system
is possible next week as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

0z GFS had this recurving around 60W which is uncomfortably close to Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa
on Sunday or Monday. Gradual development of this system is possible
next week as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa
on Sunday or Monday. Gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form next week while the
wave moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

One 96L move out of the way the next wave off africa looks like it could develop into a tropical cyclone.

[MarioProtVI]

One 96L move out of the way the next wave off africa looks like it could develop into a tropical cyclone.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2927/gzgnTH.gif [/url]

I think the GFS has been overdoing the intensity here. Euro has a weak system at most out of this. The reason? The upper environment is considerably different between the two, with a TUTT persisting and shearing the system to death on the EPS/Euro. It’s persisted for the last several days which seems to be on brand for this season. None of the other models sans GFS has a remotely strong system at all, and it’s far more likely this just ends up as another Gordon repeat then a late season MDR hurricane. We’ve seen how bad the models were at detecting bad conditions - Gordon was modeled consistently to be a long track major hurricane and then recently a recurving hurricane - it ended struggling to intensify and dissipated in the MDR then failed to regen because models did not pick up on unfavorable conditions and pre-96L got stronger then models indicated, which ruined Gordon’s chances of surviving (basically what happened with Hone).

[ChrisH-UK]

One 96L move out of the way the next wave off africa looks like it could develop into a tropical cyclone.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2927/gzgnTH.gif [/url]

I think the GFS has been overdoing the intensity here. Euro has a weak system at most out of this. The reason? The upper environment is considerably different between the two, with a TUTT persisting and shearing the system to death on the EPS/Euro. It’s persisted for the last several days which seems to be on brand for this season. None of the other models sans GFS has a remotely strong system at all, and it’s far more likely this just ends up as another Gordon repeat then a late season MDR hurricane. We’ve seen how bad the models were at detecting bad conditions - Gordon was modeled consistently to be a long track major hurricane and then recently a recurving hurricane - it ended struggling to intensify and dissipated in the MDR then failed to regen because models did not pick up on unfavorable conditions and pre-96L got stronger then models indicated, which ruined Gordon’s chances of surviving (basically what happened with Hone).

I just used that as a example of where they are going and end up.

[cycloneye]

Is the first time I see the Euro AIFS this strong since it became available. Down to 941 mbs.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move
westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of
the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

There is the splash of the wave to the water.

[ThomasW]

Models becoming more confident.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move
westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of
the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[CrazyC83]

Now, don't pull a fast one and steal the name Helene! Otherwise 97L WOULD be the dreaded "I" storm again...

[aspen]

18z GFS shows rapid genesis in about 54-60 hours, and a Cat 1 hurricane at Day 4. This feels like an early September peak season MDR long-tracker, not something close to October lol

[Teban54]

18z GFS shows rapid genesis in about 54-60 hours, and a Cat 1 hurricane at Day 4. This feels like an early September peak season MDR long-tracker, not something close to October lol

At least it looks like it was still unable to steal the H name from 97L, despite much faster short-term evolution.

[CrazyC83]

18z GFS shows rapid genesis in about 54-60 hours, and a Cat 1 hurricane at Day 4. This feels like an early September peak season MDR long-tracker, not something close to October lol

At least it looks like it was still unable to steal the H name from 97L, despite much faster short-term evolution.

Also, we had a long-tracker in late June/early July, so why not in late September/early October (or even later)? I think the probs will need to go up a bit more before this becomes 98L.

[WeatherBoy2000]

18z GFS shows rapid genesis in about 54-60 hours, and a Cat 1 hurricane at Day 4. This feels like an early September peak season MDR long-tracker, not something close to October lol

At least it looks like it was still unable to steal the H name from 97L, despite much faster short-term evolution.

Also, we had a long-tracker in late June/early July, so why not in late September/early October (or even later)? I think the probs will need to go up a bit more before this becomes 98L.

We were seeing mdr hurricanes as late as October 20th last year. I think the possibility for them will extend well into October due to ssts being at record levels again:

[Category5Kaiju]

18z GFS shows rapid genesis in about 54-60 hours, and a Cat 1 hurricane at Day 4. This feels like an early September peak season MDR long-tracker, not something close to October lol

At least it looks like it was still unable to steal the H name from 97L, despite much faster short-term evolution.

Also, we had a long-tracker in late June/early July, so why not in late September/early October (or even later)? I think the probs will need to go up a bit more before this becomes 98L.

This season is generating Cape Verde storms during times of the year when they shouldn’t be happening

[Hammy]

18z GFS shows rapid genesis in about 54-60 hours, and a Cat 1 hurricane at Day 4. This feels like an early September peak season MDR long-tracker, not something close to October lol

Consistent with what the CFS started showing around late August (once it was clear early September conditions weren't favorable), it kicked the switch to about September 19 or so

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of the
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.