Possible development in the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 95L)

[galaxy401]

Here comes another potential system in the western Caribbean. NHC now starting to pick it up. Models have been showing possible development here. Another USA threat or will it stay south?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water
while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central
America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[AnnularCane]

This lemon makes me think of a jellyfish for some reason.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is the one that the GFS consistently blew up into a monster in past cycles. May get buried in Central America instead of turning north to become a CONUS threat, imho

[xironman]

Gyre off the coast of Nicaragua, ICON spins it up until Saturday when it crashes into the Yucatan.



The ensembles have the same general idea

[eastcoastFL]

Here comes another potential system in the western Caribbean. NHC now starting to pick it up. Models have been showing possible development here. Another USA threat or will it stay south?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water
while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central
America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

I think this one will end up in central America as a rather weak system. Not that they need anymore rain.

[tropicwatch]

Gyre off the coast of Nicaragua, ICON spins it up until Saturday when it crashes into the Yucatan.

https://i.imgur.com/PJRFNfa.gif

The ensembles have the same general idea

https://i.imgur.com/UQEpEZx.gif

https://i.imgur.com/JIOONsE.gif

Currently most of the vorticity is at the 500mb level.

[xironman]

Gyre off the coast of Nicaragua, ICON spins it up until Saturday when it crashes into the Yucatan.

https://i.imgur.com/PJRFNfa.gif

The ensembles have the same general idea

https://i.imgur.com/UQEpEZx.gif

https://i.imgur.com/JIOONsE.gif

Currently most of the vorticity is at the 500mb level.

Yeah, its mid level.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

2. Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over
water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern
Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[AJC3]

The status quo continues...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[MarioProtVI]

Not sure why NHC is snoozing on this. It has better ensemble support from both EPS and GEFS lately, there’s been an uptrend somewhat on operationals, and conditions are favorable. I get there’s land but I think 20/20 is still too low for this system. IMO 20/30 or 20/40 is probably more realistic here.

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week and into the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible over the next couple of days before it moves
inland over Central America. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and
southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent

[ChrisH-UK]

This is the broad rotation that the models are looking at and NHC giving 20/20 chance. There is a lot of convective development going on and could well be trouble for the likes of Belize and Mexico.

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Gradual development
of this system is possible over the next couple of days before it
moves inland over Central America. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America
and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Invest 95L is up