SPAC: ALFRED - Ex Tropical Cyclone

[Subtrop]

93P INVEST 250220 0000 12.0S 145.2E SHEM 15 0

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0651 UTC 22/02/2025
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 150.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: east northeast (071 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm (205 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 22/1200: 15.0S 150.4E: 035 (070): 040 (075): 999
+12: 22/1800: 14.8S 150.7E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 997
+18: 23/0000: 14.6S 151.0E: 055 (100): 040 (075): 997
+24: 23/0600: 14.2S 151.4E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 994
+36: 23/1800: 14.1S 152.6E: 075 (145): 050 (095): 991
+48: 24/0600: 14.7S 153.5E: 095 (175): 055 (100): 987
+60: 24/1800: 15.1S 153.9E: 100 (185): 060 (110): 983
+72: 25/0600: 15.6S 154.2E: 120 (225): 060 (110): 983
+96: 26/0600: 16.5S 154.6E: 150 (280): 065 (120): 980
+120: 27/0600: 18.0S 154.7E: 185 (340): 070 (130): 973
REMARKS:
Tropical low 22U continues to develop convection near the centre, with
curvature and banding slowly improving. However, the effects of westerly shear
are still apparent in the satellite signature. The past two ASCAT passes have
depicted an elongated LLCC. Current centre fix based on visible satellite
imagery and Willis Island radar with fair confidence.

Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with 0.4-0.45 wrap giving a
DT of 2.5. MET is 2.0 based on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is adjusted to 2.5.
Final T and CI 2.5. Objective aids are not yet available. Intensity set to 40
knots based on persistent gales at Willis Island, peaking at 36 knots. Gales
remain analysed in the southern quadrants only, extrapolating this morning's
ASCAT pass and reinforced by OSCAT and ASMR2 passes this afternoon.

CIMSS upper wind analysis shows good outflow in both the northern and southern
quadrants, the latter effected by an upper trough nearby to the south. CIMSS
shear analysis shows 22U located along a narrow bottleneck in a low shear band.
However, recent satellite imagery would suggest the system remains affected by
westerly shear from the proximity of the upper trough to some degree. This is
expected to offset the favourable outflow somewhat over the next 24 hours. The
system may move further north away from this upper trough in the short term as
the SE'ly surge pushes in from the south. Development at close to the standard
rate is thus forecast, which would see the system reach TC strength on Sunday
morning. However, with good forcing from a low level SE surge and gales
already in place, it is possible the system may achieve TC strength earlier
than forecast.

The influence of the upper trough will cause initial steering to be broadly to
the E, with an initial push northward as the low level SE surge arrives. Beyond
that, most guidance suggests that a steering ridge will extend from the
Australian mainland and partially cradle the system, halting any further E'ly
motion, yielding a slow southward track through most of next week. The upper
trough will be only slow to move, so the system may encounter increasing shear
as it moves south. Hence, only slow development is forecast, with some
weakening likely to begin at the end of next week.

Guidance is well spread on the influence of the mainland ridge on the track of
22U late next week, with some suggestion that the system may drift slightly
westward and approach the central Queensland coast late next week.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BOM_Qld/status/1893465098036871393

[Subtrop]

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:45 pm EST on Sunday 23 February 2025

At 4 pm AEST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 1) with central pressure
999 hPa was located
over the Coral Sea
near latitude 14.3 south longitude 153.1 east, which is about 400 km east
northeast of Willis Island and 840 km east northeast of Cairns.

The cyclone is moving east at 16 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is strengthening as it moves eastwards in the Coral
Sea, well offshore of the north Queensland coast.

During the week Alfred is expected to turn southeast and then south while
continuing to strengthen. Considerable uncertainty exists in the track the
system will take beyond that, but there is a risk it will move closer to the
central Queensland coast later in the week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Sunday 23
February.

[Hurricane2022]

Originally, the name Anthony was scheduled to be used, but was switched with Alfred from the next list of names in February 2025 to avoid confusion with Anthony Albanese, the Prime Minister of Australia at the time.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BOM_Qld/status/1893743941268230505

[cycloneye]

Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0702 UTC 24/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Alfred
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 154.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: east (090 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm (390 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 24/1200: 14.2S 154.7E: 030 (060): 055 (100): 986
+12: 24/1800: 14.5S 155.1E: 040 (075): 060 (110): 981
+18: 25/0000: 14.8S 155.3E: 050 (090): 070 (130): 973
+24: 25/0600: 15.1S 155.5E: 055 (100): 070 (130): 973
+36: 25/1800: 15.6S 155.8E: 070 (130): 075 (140): 969
+48: 26/0600: 16.5S 156.0E: 090 (165): 075 (140): 970
+60: 26/1800: 17.3S 156.1E: 110 (200): 075 (140): 970
+72: 27/0600: 18.2S 156.1E: 125 (235): 075 (140): 967
+96: 28/0600: 19.6S 156.2E: 170 (320): 065 (120): 974
+120: 01/0600: 20.7S 155.0E: 200 (375): 050 (095): 986
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Alfred continues to develop slowly with the degree of banding
gradually increasing, but the amount of convection fluctuating. There is
medium confidence in the position based on visible satellite and microwave
imagery.

Dvorak pattern was based on a 3-hour average 0.7 wrap curved band pattern
yielding a DT of 3.0. 24 hour W- trend yields a MET of 2.5, and PAT is adjusted
to 3.0. FT and CI = 3.0. Objective aids at 24/0500 UTC: ADT=59kn (uniform
pattern), AiDT=54kts, DPRINT=47kts, DMINT=45 knots, MW sounders=64 knots,
SATCON=58 knots (all 1 minute mean). Intensity increased to 50 knots based on
SATCON. System structure based on AMSR2 pass at 0328 UTC, which also shows (1
minute) storm force winds in the western quadrants.

Good poleward outflow is evident on satellite imagery. CIMSS shear analysis
shows Alfred located in an area of low shear, approximately 11 knots northerly.
SSTs high at 30C and moisture over the system is moderate to high, however,
there exists some dry air to the southwest. Given the favourable to very
favourable environment, intensification slightly above the standard rate is
forecast over the next 24 hours. AI-RI suggests probabilities of approximately
45% of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours.

The influence of the upper trough to the south and an anticyclone to the north
will cause initial steering to be broadly to the E. Beyond that, most guidance
suggests that a steering ridge will extend from the Australian mainland and
partially cradle the system, halting any further E'ly motion, yielding a slow
southward track through most of the week. The upper trough will remain in
place, and some guidance suggests it is reinforced and amplified by another
pulse late in the week. The system is likely to encounter increasing shear as
it moves south. Hence, only minimal development is forecast from T+24 onward,
with the intensity capped at Category 3 in accordance with the majority of
model guidance. Some weakening becomes more likely towards the end of next week
as the system encounters increased shear and dry air. However, there is
significant uncertainty in the forecast track and the associated intensity
forecast.

Guidance is well spread on the influence of the mainland ridge on the track of
Alfred late in the week, with some suggestion that the system may drift
westward and approach the central Queensland coast from next weekend.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0704 UTC 25/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Alfred
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.3S
Longitude: 154.6E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: east (090 deg)
Speed of Movement: 0 knots (0 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Central Pressure: 981 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (40 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 190 nm (350 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 25/1200: 14.7S 154.8E: 025 (045): 060 (110): 980
+12: 25/1800: 15.2S 155.0E: 030 (060): 065 (120): 976
+18: 26/0000: 15.7S 155.2E: 040 (075): 070 (130): 972
+24: 26/0600: 16.2S 155.4E: 045 (085): 075 (140): 968
+36: 26/1800: 17.1S 155.8E: 065 (120): 075 (140): 968
+48: 27/0600: 18.0S 155.9E: 085 (160): 075 (140): 965
+60: 27/1800: 18.7S 156.1E: 105 (195): 070 (130): 968
+72: 28/0600: 19.5S 156.4E: 125 (230): 065 (120): 972
+96: 01/0600: 21.0S 155.8E: 170 (315): 060 (110): 976
+120: 02/0600: 22.0S 155.1E: 200 (370): 055 (100): 979
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is near stationary with the cloud signature and banding
slowly improving. Location was based on visible satellite imagery and recent
microwave passes with good confidence.

Dvorak analysis: curved band pattern wrapping 0.8-1.1 over the last few hours,
with an average DT of 4.0. Embedded centre in MG likewise yields DT of 4.0. MET
is 3.5 based on a 24 hour D- trend, and PAT is adjusted to 4.0. FT and CI =
4.0. Objective aids at 25/0500 UTC: ADT=82 kn (uniform pattern), AiDT=77 kn,
DPRINT=68 kn, SATCON=70 kn (all 1 minute mean). Morning (2240 UTC) ASCAT pass
showed max winds around 45 knots, however a subsequent OSCAT pass (0141 UTC)
suggested storm force winds in the eastern quadrants. Intensity set at 55 knots
based on subjective Dvorak, noting intensity from scatterometry has tended to
be below the objective estimates today and yesterday.

A poleward outflow channel has continued to aid development, albeit slowly.
SSTs remain favourable at 29-30C , however ocean heat content is analysed as
more marginal (<50 kJ/cm2). CIMSS analysis indicated wind shear has increased
to 17 kn NE'ly. Alfred is forecast to intensify further at a standard rate over
the next 24 hours, with the poleward outflow and favourable SSTs expected to
offset the increased shear. AI-RI continues to suggest probabilities up to 50%
of rapid intensification within 24 hours, however this has failed to
materialise over the past couple of days in a similar environment.

The influence of the upper trough to the south should cause Alfred to be
steered towards the south southeast from tonight. Late in the week, a mid-level
ridge extending from the Australian mainland to the south of the system may
halt the eastern component of motion. The degree to which this feature will
influence Alfred's movement in the longer term remains uncertain, however a
significant amount of guidance suggests that Alfred may turn westward towards
the Queensland coast over the weekend. Other guidance suggests Alfred remains
offshore.

Wind shear is likely to increase as Alfred tracks south and the system is
forecast to reach its peak intensity during Wednesday. Later in the week, and
especially if the system turns towards the southwest, it is forecast to weaken
somewhat under the influence of increasing shear from an amplifying upper
trough and a drier environment.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:41 am EST on Wednesday 26 February 2025

At 10 am AEST Wednesday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 2) with central
pressure 982 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 14.9 south
longitude 155.0 east, which is about 930 km northeast of Mackay and 1000 km
east northeast of Townsville.

Alfred is slowly moving south though the Coral Sea and is forecast to continue
to move in a general southwards direction during today and on Thursday. There
is high confidence that Alfred will remain well off the Queensland coast until
late in the week.

From the weekend the track becomes highly uncertain and there is the risk that
Alfred may move closer to the central or southern Queensland coast.

[cycloneye]

Great outflow and eye feature showing up.

[shah83]

Extratropical storm Alfred impacting Sydney looks...fun on these models...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:41 pm EST on Wednesday 26 February 2025

At 4 pm AEST Wednesday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 2) with central
pressure 982 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 15.2 south
longitude 155.1 east, which is about 910 km northeast of Mackay and 1030 km
north northeast of Rockhampton.

Alfred is slowly moving south though the Coral Sea and is forecast to continue
to move in a general southwards direction during the rest of Wednesday and on
Thursday while slowly strengthening. There is high confidence that Alfred will
remain well off the Queensland coast until late in the week.

From the weekend the track becomes highly uncertain and there is the risk that
Alfred may move closer to the central or southern Queensland coast.

[cycloneye]

[Subtrop]

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:44 pm EST on Wednesday 26 February 2025

At 10 pm AEST Wednesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 3) with
central pressure 978 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 15.7
south longitude 155.2 east, which is about 870 km northeast of Mackay and 990
km north northeast of Rockhampton.

Alfred is slowly moving south though the Coral Sea and is forecast to continue
to move in a general southwards direction while slowly strengthening. There is
high confidence that Alfred will remain well off the Queensland coast into the
weekend.

There is high uncertainty in regards to Alfreds movement beyond Saturday, with
possible risk that Alfred may move closer to the central or southern Queensland
coast by Sunday.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Thursday 27
February.

[WaveBreaking]

Looks like Alfred became the dominant storm of the three, with Seru and Rae getting sheared by outflow.



Alfred also might be trying to start an RI phase, but the banding to its north might get in the way for now.

[cycloneye]

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:49 am EST on Thursday 27 February 2025

At 4 am AEST Thursday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 3) with central
pressure 971 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 16.1 south
longitude 155.4 east, which is about 860 km northeast of Mackay and 960 km
north northeast of Rockhampton.

Alfred is slowly moving south though the Coral Sea and is forecast to continue
to move in a general southwards direction while slowly strengthening. There is
high confidence that Alfred will remain well off the Queensland coast into the
weekend.

There is high uncertainty though, in regards to Alfreds movement beyond
Saturday, with the possible risk that Alfred may move closer to the central or
southern Queensland coast by Sunday.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:37 pm EST on Thursday 27 February 2025

At 4 pm AEST Thursday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 4) with central
pressure 954 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 17.5 south
longitude 155.4 east, which is about 770 km east northeast of Mackay and 830 km
northeast of Rockhampton.

Alfred is moving south though the Coral Sea and is forecast to continue to move
general south and continue to strengthen during the rest of Thursday and into
Friday morning.

There is increasing confidence that Alfred will stay offshore of the Queensland
coast, however, there remains uncertainty as to how close to the southern
Queensland coast Alfred may come during next week.

Regardless of Alfred's path, increased coastal hazards for the southern coast
are expected. A large and powerful to potentially damaging easterly swell as
well as abnormally high tides are forecast to develop about southern Queensland
beaches from Friday or during Saturday. Refer to marine warnings and forecasts.

[cycloneye]

[WaveBreaking]

My best bet is that Alfred is undergoing some sort of EWRC at the moment.


Where I think the eyeballs might be at.

[Hurricane2022]

The EWRC is almost over