SIO: GARANCE - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

97S INVEST 250224 0000 17.5S 50.5E SHEM 15 0

[cycloneye]

- A low pressure system began to form on Sunday east of Madagascar, just over 500 km northwest of Reunion Island. The Reunion Island Cyclone Monitoring Center (RSMC) is starting to monitor this weak system on Monday, currently designated as Disturbed Area No. 10-20242025.

- It is expected to move slowly eastward by Wednesday, gradually organizing. Tropical storm status is likely by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

- A turn towards the south is then expected between Wednesday and Thursday with continued intensification. The system could then approach the Reunion-Mauritius sector according to a timeline that is still uncertain at present, rather located between Wednesday 26 and Friday 28.

- Given the uncertainties about the evolution of this system, it is still too early to precisely quantify the expected impacts on Reunion Island and Mauritius. In any case, no direct influence of the phenomenon is expected before Wednesday, even if temporary rainy sequences are possible on the periphery of the low pressure circulation by then.

- Residents of the Sister Islands are advised to stay tuned to weather forecasts through their weather service and follow the instructions issued by local authorities.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

System Information: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-20242025


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1003 hPa.

Position on February 25 at 10 a.m. local time: 18.5 South / 51.6 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 475 km to the sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 930 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: Quasi-stationary.

Key messages:

- Tropical depression No. 10-20242025 is a weak depression system at the beginning of its life and is located northwest of Reunion Island, intensifying slightly.

- Through Wednesday, this system is expected to move slowly and generally eastward, gradually organizing. Tropical storm status is likely by tonight or Wednesday.

- A turn towards the south is then expected between Wednesday and Thursday with continued intensification. The system could then approach the Reunion-Mauritius sector at a mature stage (reaching the tropical cyclone stage) according to a timeline that is still uncertain at present, rather located during the day on Thursday.

- Note that this system will be small in size, with therefore a dangerous weather zone of limited geographical extension: more than 150 km from the center, the rainy and windy effects of the system are expected to be relatively limited.

- Concerning Mauritius, strong winds and heavy rains are possible from the night of Wednesday to Thursday and especially Thursday. A dangerous sea state is likely from Wednesday. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their meteorological service.

- Concerning Reunion Island, no direct influence of the phenomenon is in any case expected before Wednesday, even if between now and then temporary rainy sequences are possible on the periphery of the low pressure circulation. A windy and rainy deterioration is possible from the night of Wednesday to Thursday and until Friday morning, but its extent remains to be quantified and will depend on the distance of the me

[Subtrop]

WTIO22 FMEE 251224 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 25/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 51.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/26 AT 00 UTC:
18.3 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/26 AT 12 UTC:
18.6 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

[cycloneye]

System Information: STRONG TROPICAL STORM GARANCE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 993 hPa.

Position on February 26 at 10 a.m. local time: 17.8 South / 53.6 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 390 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1060 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: EAST, at 9 km/h.

Key messages:

- GARANCE remains at the stage of a strong tropical storm this morning. It has slightly slowed its movement towards the east-southeast and is located approximately 390 km northwest of Reunion Island.

- GARANCE should benefit from favorable environmental conditions for its development by Thursday. It is expected to reach tropical cyclone status late Wednesday or even in the evening, before turning south towards Reunion Island. It could then approach intense tropical cyclone status just before passing very close to Reunion Island during the night of Thursday 27 to Friday 28 (timeline still uncertain, slightly delayed compared to previous forecasts).

- Note that this system remains small in size, with therefore a dangerous weather zone of limited geographical extension: more than 150 km from the center, the rainy and windy effects of the system are expected to be relatively limited.

- Concerning Reunion Island, a direct influence of the system is expected at the end of the day on Thursday and until Friday. While the closest passage distance remains to be specified, it is now very likely that it will be sufficiently small (less than 50 km) for a very significant deterioration in weather conditions in terms of heavy rain, gusts of wind and sea conditions to occur, on all or part of the island. Residents are invited to follow the instructions given by the authorities.

- Concerning Mauritius, probably less impacted than Reunion by the meteor, dangerous seas are likely and strong winds and heavy rains are possible in the eastern periphery of the cyclone during the day and evening of Thursday. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their meteorological service.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1894698456364810470

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1894784927360553321

[cycloneye]

System Information: STRONG TROPICAL STORM GARANCE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 984 hPa.

Position on February 26 at 7 p.m. local time: 17.7 South / 54.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 370 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1130 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: EAST, at 15 km/h.

Key messages:

- GARANCE intensified during the afternoon, showing a slight eye on satellite images.

- GARANCE has slightly accelerated its course towards the east-southeast and is located approximately 370 km northwest of Reunion.

- GARANCE should benefit from favorable environmental conditions for its development by Thursday. It is expected to reach tropical cyclone status today late in the day or even in the evening, before turning south towards Reunion Island.

- GARANCE could then approach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone just before passing as close as possible to Reunion Island during the night from Thursday to Friday (chronology still uncertain, a little delayed compared to previous forecasts).

- Note that this system remains small in size, with therefore a dangerous weather zone of limited geographical extension: more than 150 km from the center, the rainy and windy effects of the system are expected to be relatively limited.

- A direct cyclonic threat scenario remains envisaged for Reunion Island with a system that should pass in the immediate vicinity (less than 50 km) or even over Reunion Island at the end of Thursday night. A very significant deterioration in weather conditions in terms of heavy rain, gusts of wind and sea conditions is very likely with a significant risk of cyclonic conditions (gusts of more than 150 km/h) over all or part of the island.

- Concerning Mauritius, probably less impacted than Reunion by the meteor, dangerous seas are likely and strong winds and heavy rains are possible in the eastern periphery of the cyclone on Thursday evening and Friday morning. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their meteorological service.

[WaveBreaking]

Garance currently trying to pull off an RI episode.

[cycloneye]

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 140 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 195 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 972 hPa.

Position on February 27 at 01:00 local time: 17.9 South / 54.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 335 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1170 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 9 km/h.

Key messages:

- GARANCE intensified during the afternoon and reached tropical cyclone status. It has started its turn towards the south.

- GARANCE should benefit from favorable environmental conditions for its development by Thursday. It could then approach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone just before passing as close as possible to Reunion Island during the night from Thursday to Friday.

- Note that this system remains small in size, with therefore a dangerous weather zone of limited geographical extension: more than 150 km from the center, the rainy and windy effects of the system are expected to be relatively limited.

- A direct cyclonic threat scenario remains envisaged for Reunion Island with a system that should pass in the immediate vicinity (less than 50 km) or even over Reunion Island at the end of Thursday night. A very significant deterioration in weather conditions in terms of heavy rain, gusts of wind and sea conditions is very likely with a significant risk of cyclonic conditions (gusts of more than 150 km/h) over all or part of the island.

- Concerning Mauritius, probably less impacted than Reunion by the meteor, dangerous seas are likely and strong winds and heavy rains are possible in the eastern periphery of the cyclone on Thursday evening and Friday morning. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their meteorological service.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1894920287663067257

[cycloneye]

System Information: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GARANCE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 230 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 960 hPa.

Position on February 27 at 1 p.m. local time: 18.4 South / 55.2 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 270 km to the sector: NORTH

Distance from Mayotte: 1240 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH, at 7 km/h.

Key messages:

- GARANCE intensified overnight and reached the stage of an intense tropical cyclone. It is now moving towards the south.

- GARANCE should benefit from favorable environmental conditions today and remain at the stage of an intense tropical cyclone just before passing as close as possible to Reunion Island on Friday morning. Shortly before reaching Reunion Island, it could encounter unfavorable environmental conditions and begin to weaken.

- Note that this system remains small in size, with therefore a dangerous weather zone of limited geographical extension: more than 150 km from the center, the rainy and windy effects of the system are expected to be relatively limited.

- A direct cyclonic threat scenario is envisaged for Reunion Island with a system that should pass in the immediate vicinity (less than 50 km) or even over Reunion Island. A very significant deterioration in weather conditions in terms of heavy rain, gusts of wind and sea conditions is very likely with a significant risk of cyclonic conditions (gusts of more than 150 km/h) over all or part of the island.

- Concerning Mauritius, probably less impacted than Reunion by the meteor, dangerous seas are likely and strong winds and heavy rains are possible in the eastern periphery of the cyclone on Thursday evening and Friday morning. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their meteorological service.

Here are the expected intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the next few days:

[cycloneye]

Getting closer to Reunion and maybe a tad weaker now?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/1895094413652623750

[cycloneye]

Eye more clear than a few hours ago.

[cycloneye]

Approaching Reunion as a beast.

System Information: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GARANCE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 175 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 250 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 951 hPa.

Position on February 28 at 01:00 local time: 19.3 South / 55.3 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 175 km to the sector: NORTH

Distance from Mayotte: 1300 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH, at 13 km/h.

Key messages:

- GARANCE remains at the stage of an intense tropical cyclone, having intensified slightly in the evening. It is moving slowly towards the south.

- GARANCE should begin to weaken in the second part of the night before its closest passage to Reunion Island on Friday morning. However, it will still be a very dangerous system (tropical cyclone or even intense tropical cyclone).

- Note that this system remains small in size, with therefore a dangerous weather zone of limited geographical extension: more than 150 km from the center, the rainy and windy effects of the system are expected to be relatively limited.

- A direct cyclonic threat scenario is envisaged for Reunion Island with a system that should pass in the immediate vicinity (less than 50 km) or even over Reunion Island. A very significant deterioration in weather conditions in terms of heavy rain, gusts of wind and sea conditions is very likely with a significant risk of cyclonic conditions (gusts of more than 150 km/h) on all or part of the island. Gusts could exceed 180 km/h in areas impacted by the eyewall.

- Concerning Mauritius, probably less impacted than Reunion by the meteor, the sea is rough to very rough. Episodes of heavy rain are possible in the eastern periphery of the cyclone on Thursday evening and Friday morning. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their meteorological service.

[cycloneye]

It is moving over Renunion but is a small cyclone and has begun to weaken. It will clear that island soon.

System information: CYCLONE TROPICAL GARANCE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.

Position on February 28 at 1 p.m. local time: 21.8 South / 55.2 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 60 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1450 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, at 15 km/h.

Key messages:

- GARANCE landed at 10am local time in the north of Reunion Island, near Sainte-Suzanne at the tropical cyclone stage. Gusts exceed 200 km/h. The tropical cyclone emerged out to sea off Saint-Louis and is gradually moving away from the island this afternoon. Strong winds of 100 to 150 km/h are still possible in the southwestern highlands. Very heavy rainstorms affect a large part of the island.

- conditions will remain very poor across the island all day Friday, particularly in the north-west region of the island.

- Concerning Mauritius, probably less impacted than Reunion by the meteor, the sea is rough to very rough. Episodes of heavy rain are possible in the eastern periphery of the cyclone on Thursday evening and Friday morning. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their meteorological service.

[cycloneye]

Here is the eye landfall.