2025 Global ACE: NH - 144.3 (243.9) / NATL - 39.0 (32.2) / EPAC - 52.2 (76.4) / WPAC - 53.1 (125.8) / NIO - 0 (9.5)

[cycloneye]

Here is the thread for the global ACE in the Northern Hemisphere. Thanks to Teban54 for recommending this topic to be started.

CSU realtime data site.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[cycloneye]

WPAC is way behind (12.7) from the normal average (43.5) for July 6 and the Northern Hemisphere that has (38.2) is worse as the normal average for the date is (73.3). EPAC has started very active and is at (24.0) and is ahead of the average of (17.2). For the NATL, the average to the date is (3.1) and it has (1.5).

Let's see how things get rolling and the numbers change as time goes by with the peak of the basins in ASO.

[gib]

Nice to see this thread again. The seasonal data may have reset on July 1st, but spare a thought for the SIO's '24-'25 season. CSU's data only goes back to 1980 for the SIO which means the sample isn't as large as other basins. Still, every metric (using Atlantic naming conventions) was among the highest ever last season:

Named Storms: Tied for 2nd
Named Storm Days: 3rd
Hurricanes: Tied for 1st
Hurricane Days: 4th
Major Hurricanes: 2nd
Major Hurricane Days: 2nd
ACE: 2nd

That's certainly an upper echelon season. Impressive!

[cycloneye]

Added the averages of all the basins (---) and all are running below the daily dates average. Looks like WPAC will get a good amount of ACE in the next few days with the three areas of interest now, but especially with 98W that the models have developing into a strong typhoon.

[dexterlabio]

We are about to enter second-in-a-row La Niña. One would expect the global ACE to be near-record low at least.

[cycloneye]

WPAC is like EPAC with many numbers of storms but ACE is well behind the normal average. 9/4/0 are the WPAC numbers so far that has the named systems that had formed, none reaching 10 individual ACE units.

[StormWeather]

WPAC is like EPAC with many numbers of storms but ACE is well behind the normal average. 9/4/0 are the WPAC numbers so far that has the named systems that had formed, none reaching 10 individual ACE units.

It’s actually 9/4/1, JTWC did an override on the BT of Danas afterwards and revised it to 100 kts.

[cycloneye]

Here is the ACE data as August begins. Northern Hemisphere - 70.8 (136/9) / NATL - 1.5 (9.8) / EPAC - 34.9 (43.2) / WPAC - 34.4 (74.4) / NIO - 0 (9.5) In general, the ACE is way down on the average in the NH and thanks mainly to WPAC that is way down. The parentesis numbers are the averages (----)

[LarryWx]

Here is the ACE data as August begins. Northern Hemisphere - 70.8 (136/9) / NATL - 1.5 (9.8) / EPAC - 34.9 (43.2) / WPAC - 34.4 (74.4) / NIO - 0 (9.5) In general, the ACE is way down on the average in the NH and thanks mainly to WPAC that is way down. The parentesis numbers are the averages (----)

Of the last 75 years, the 1.5 (8.3 BN) for the Atlantic is 60th. What does that portend, if anything, for ACE vs normal for the rest of the season?

I looked at the seasons with ACE <3 as of August 1. There were 30 of the last 75 seasons with ACE <3. How was the Aug+ ACE of the prior 29 in comparison to their era’s normal Aug+ ACE?

Seasons:
BN: 74, 22, 07, 78, 62, 94, 02, 52, 91, 92, 93, 83, 09, 87
NN: 71, 81, 65, 01, 84, 88, 00
AN: 98, 58, 67, 55, 63, 04, 80, 77

However, I now need to take out El Niño seasons: 94, 02, 91, 09, 87, 65, 58, 63, 04, and 77

That leaves us with these 19 non-Nino seasons with ACE <3 as of Aug 1:

BN: 74, 22, 07, 78, 62, 52, 92, 93, 83 (9 seasons)
NN: 71, 81, 01, 84, 88, 00 (6 seasons)
AN: 98, 67, 55, 80 (4 seasons)

So, what does this tell me about the prospects for ACE for the rest of this season vs the 1991-2020 112 avg Aug+ ACE?

-BN has the best chance of each of the 3 categories
-NN and AN, combined, about the same chance as BN
-4 out of these 19 (21%) were AN vs normal chance for AN of ~33%. So, though the chance for AN is reduced for very low Aug 1st ACE seasons, AN being at 21% means that having an AN season wouldn’t be surprising.

**Edit: I had a typo by putting 1983 as AN instead of BN. I’m now going to update the analysis to incorporate the correction. The corrections have now been incorporated.

*Edit: So, 4 of the 19 had an AN remainder of season. Two of those, 1955 and 1980, were quite active starting about now. But the other two, 1998 and 1967, waited til Aug 20th (bell ringing day) and Aug 29th, respectively, for the next NS. Both of those had an active Sep and a (pretty) active Oct, too.

[cycloneye]

WPAC is going to get a good deal of ACE with TD 16W that is forecast to be a powerful typhoon that will be named Podul.

[cycloneye]

The North Atlantic basin will get a lot of ACE with the future development of the tropical wave that the models agree will be a powerful hurricane. Let's see at the end, how much it gets.

[cycloneye]

The North Atlantic basin begins to get ACE units from Erin and now we will see how much it gets at the end of it's long journey.

[LarryWx]

The North Atlantic basin begins to get ACE units from Erin and now we will see how much it gets at the end of it's long journey.

Due to Erin NATL ACE is now rapidly rising with 2025 about to cross median (of last 75) and should cross mean tomorrow. 2025 could reach top 20 by Mon and top 15 by Tue or Wed.

[cycloneye]

Erin will get very high ACE units. As of 09z it has 5.5.

[cycloneye]

Erin as of 15:00 UTC has 14.4 ACE units and it looks like it will surpass the 20 mark.

[Ulf]

The North Atlantic has woken up while the West Pacific is still in coma and on track to become another below average season like the past 5 years. The lack of very strong typhoon at this point in the year is clear from the ACE value.

[LarryWx]

Erin as of 15:00 UTC has 14.4 ACE units and it looks like it will surpass the 20 mark.

With Erin’s ACE already up to 14 with lots and 3 more days of MH status being forecasted followed by two days of cat 2-1, a total ACE of 35 for Erin, alone, is doable!

If Erin gets to 35, the season total would be ~39, which likely would get 2025 at least into the top 15 since 1951 as of August 22nd.

[LarryWx]

NATL ACE has risen to 23.6, which is pretty suddenly the 16th highest of the last 75 for the date.

Based on the latest NHC prog, ACE would be ~42 as of late Aug 23. If that verifies, 2025 would move up to 9th or 10th of the last 75. It would also move up to ~19th or 20th of the last 175 years (~89th percentile).

The only ones higher than 2025 as of Aug 23rd would be these:
2024, 2008, near tie with 2007, 2005, 1995, 1980, 1969, 1955, 1951, 1950, 1933, 1926, 1916, 1899, 1893, 1887, 1886, 1880, and 1871.
2025 would be just ahead of 2004, 1966, and 1915.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.



https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... -hurricane