WPAC: PODUL - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 250806 0600 19.0N 149.0E WPAC 15 0

[ElectricStorm]

GFS has a significant typhoon out of this, while the euro is not onboard yet. We'll see which one ends up caving

[Hayabusa]

It looks like convective clouds are trying to band around the burst of convection near the center, could be to watch out for rapid development...

[Hayabusa]

06z eps

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 061200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 18N 148E NNW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

TCFA, was medium at 18z

WTPN21 PGTW 062230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 149.0E TO 18.9N 146.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.4N 148.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.3N 148.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 148.1E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OVER A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW 98W CONTINUING TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072230Z.
//
NNNN

18z for ref

ABPW10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/061800Z-070600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZAUG2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 06AUG25 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (BAILU) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 162.2E, APPROXIMATELY 959 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN,
AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 060300) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) AT 06AUG25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 157.2E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 061500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.3N
148.4E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 061121Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED A COMPACT WIND FIELD
WITH 20 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30
C). GFS AND GEFS ARE SHOWING THAT INVEST 98W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS MEDIUM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

TCFA

that escalated quickly

[Hayabusa]

16W SIXTEEN 250807 0000 18.4N 147.8E WPAC 25 1007

[StormWeather]

16W SIXTEEN 250807 0000 18.4N 147.8E WPAC 25 1007

Well, welcome to the party 16W! Please be sure to leave your intensity at the door.

[cycloneye]

Yikes!

[mrbagyo]

This kinda makes me a lil excited.
a potential WPAC classic

[Hayabusa]

00Z

[mrbagyo]

past systems that I can remember with similar area of origin and projected track are:
Gordon (1989)
Soulik (2013)
Haitang (2005)

[cycloneye]

Wow, the peak intensity continues to go up.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MARIANAS ISLAND CHAIN AROUND
TAU 24. OVER THIS PERIOD, THE STR OVER OKINAWA WILL RECEDE
WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERN STR TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF
TS 16W. SLOWLY AND SURELY, THE TRAJECTORY OF TS 16W WILL FLATTEN
OUT AND BECOME MORE WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE STR TO THE EAST
BUILDS. AFTER TAU 48, THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH
THE RIDGE OF THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC, RESULTING IN A STRONG,
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH OF
TAIWAN ALL THE WAY TO NEAR 35N 160E. FROM TAU 48 THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, TS 16W WILL TRAVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS EXTENSIVE RIDGING PATTERN. IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY, IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY MUCH DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN ASYMMETRIC VORTEX, AND THE
PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN THE EASTERN QUADRANTS, INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF UPSHEAR CONVECTION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE
MODELS ANTICIPATE A REDUCTION IN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
AS THE TUTT-CELL TO THE WEST MOVES AWAY, FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE
AND BEGIN TO ALIGN VERTICALLY. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, BUT BY THEN THE VORTEX SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO RESIST, AND THE INCREASED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT
THE START OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER A POOL OF
HIGH OHC WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW DECREASES AGAIN AFTER TAU 72, WITH
SHEAR VALUES DROPPING OFF, ALLOWING TS 16W TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, REACHING A PEAK OF AT LEAST 110
KNOTS, AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER BY TAU 120.

[Hurricane2022]

Our first C5 STY is coming (barring somthing unexpected, of course ). Bon voyage, Podul!

[cycloneye]

I dont want to think for a second it would be a Haiyan type but this one has all conditions going favorable down the road.

[Hayabusa]

TD a
Issued at 2025/08/07 13:15 UTC
Analysis at 08/07 12 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°40′ (18.7°)
E147°05′ (147.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 08/08 12 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°05′ (21.1°)
E144°10′ (144.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 08/09 12 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°40′ (21.7°)
E141°00′ (141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 08/10 12 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°00′ (22.0°)
E136°10′ (136.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Forecast for 08/11 12 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°00′ (22.0°)
E131°40′ (131.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Forecast for 08/12 12 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°00′ (22.0°)
E126°25′ (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 490 km (265 NM)

[Hayabusa]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like we could get quite a decent amount of ACE --- at last. Definitely not eager for the likely impacts over land and the resulting Habagat resurgence that would leave us in quite a soaking.

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TS but JMA is still at TD.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE STRONG STR OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONTO A WESTWARD
TRACK BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND
ULTIMATELY MERGES WITH A SMALL STR CENTERED NEAR OKINAWA, CREATING
A MASSIVE, DEEP, SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED STR THAT EXTENDS FROM
COASTAL CHINA TO THE DATELINE. TS 16W WILL TRAVEL WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72, BEFORE DIPPING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND TAU 96 AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU. AFTER TAU 96, TS 16W WILL BEGIN
TRACKING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST.
TS 16W HAS ALREADY INTENSIFIED MORE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED BY
THIS TIME IN THE FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY, THE LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY PRECLUDES A CONCRETE ANALYSIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE, WHICH IS OBSCURED UNDER THE CDO. THE ASCAT PASS WOULD
SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED. HOWEVER,
ASSUMING THIS IS TRUE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER A POOL OF RELATIVELY
HIGH OHC WATERS. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TAU 48, THE SYSTEM AT THAT POINT SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESIST, AT LEAST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. BEGINNING
AROUND TAU 72, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY (UP TO ABOUT 25-
30 KTS), AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR INTRUSION. THE COMBINATION OF
FACTORS WILL PUT A LID ON INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS, AND MAY
INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN MOVES INTO
A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WILL RESUME ITS INTENSIFICATION TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.