92S INVEST 250906 0000 5.0S 82.0E SHEM 15 0
SIO: BLOSSOM - Moderate Tropical Storm
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SIO: BLOSSOM - Moderate Tropical Storm
Last edited by Subtrop on Wed Sep 10, 2025 9:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SIO: BLOSSOM - Moderate Tropical Storm
WTIO30 FMEE 110016
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BLOSSOM)
2.A POSITION 2025/09/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 64.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 185 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/09/11 12 UTC: 9.3 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
24H: 2025/09/12 00 UTC: 8.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 0
36H: 2025/09/12 12 UTC: 8.5 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2025/09/13 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2025/09/13 12 UTC: 8.3 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2025/09/14 00 UTC: 8.1 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAD STRENGTHENED
SHORTLY BEFORE THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME HAS CONTINUED AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IT IS LOCATED MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, STILL PRESENTING A SHEARED CONFIGURATION. THE
2001UTC GPM DATA SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CLOSER TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND, ABOVE ALL, A CLOSED STRUCTURE VALIDATING
WINDS OF 35KT. IN THIS CONTEXT, A DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS US TO REACH
A T OF 2.5+, THUS ALLOWING SYSTEM 03-20252026 TO REACH THE THRESHOLD
OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. AT 00UTC ON THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, THE
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE NAMED BLOSSOM THE THIRD SYSTEM OF
THE 2025-2026 SEASON.
IN TERMS OF TRACK, NO CHANGE WITH A TRACK THAT MAINTAINS A
WEST-NORTHWEST, EVEN NORTHWEST, DIRECTION, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RISING GEOPOTENTIALS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AIDED BY A WEAK
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN POINT OF MADAGASCAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO END ITS JOURNEY NEAR THE SEYCHELLES BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN A WEAKENED CONFIGURATION.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE TRADE WIND PUSH EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING OVER WARM WATERS ABOVE 27AOC IS TEMPORARILY INCREASING THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE LOWER LAYERS AND STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO REACH AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM STATUS FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS, DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE SHREDDING ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING DRYER AND THE DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSITY. A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHEAR IS NEVERTHELESS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY, BUT AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DRY, A RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE
INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE QUITE DISPERSED AND
THE UNCERTAINTY IS REINFORCED BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
SATURDAY EVENING, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL IN BEFORE
FINALLY DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY/MONDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BLOSSOM)
2.A POSITION 2025/09/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 64.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 185 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/09/11 12 UTC: 9.3 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
24H: 2025/09/12 00 UTC: 8.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 0
36H: 2025/09/12 12 UTC: 8.5 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2025/09/13 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2025/09/13 12 UTC: 8.3 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2025/09/14 00 UTC: 8.1 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAD STRENGTHENED
SHORTLY BEFORE THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME HAS CONTINUED AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IT IS LOCATED MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, STILL PRESENTING A SHEARED CONFIGURATION. THE
2001UTC GPM DATA SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CLOSER TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND, ABOVE ALL, A CLOSED STRUCTURE VALIDATING
WINDS OF 35KT. IN THIS CONTEXT, A DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS US TO REACH
A T OF 2.5+, THUS ALLOWING SYSTEM 03-20252026 TO REACH THE THRESHOLD
OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. AT 00UTC ON THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, THE
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE NAMED BLOSSOM THE THIRD SYSTEM OF
THE 2025-2026 SEASON.
IN TERMS OF TRACK, NO CHANGE WITH A TRACK THAT MAINTAINS A
WEST-NORTHWEST, EVEN NORTHWEST, DIRECTION, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RISING GEOPOTENTIALS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AIDED BY A WEAK
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN POINT OF MADAGASCAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO END ITS JOURNEY NEAR THE SEYCHELLES BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN A WEAKENED CONFIGURATION.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE TRADE WIND PUSH EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING OVER WARM WATERS ABOVE 27AOC IS TEMPORARILY INCREASING THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE LOWER LAYERS AND STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO REACH AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM STATUS FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS, DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE SHREDDING ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING DRYER AND THE DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSITY. A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHEAR IS NEVERTHELESS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY, BUT AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DRY, A RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE
INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE QUITE DISPERSED AND
THE UNCERTAINTY IS REINFORCED BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
SATURDAY EVENING, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL IN BEFORE
FINALLY DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY/MONDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.
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