Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 93L)

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of west Africa by
Friday. Some slow development of this system is possible as it
moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic this
weekend into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of west Africa by
Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible as
it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
this weekend into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: TCG on Sun 9/21 with pretty brisk WNW movement in MDR to a few hundred miles ENE of the Leeward Islands on Wed 9/24:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.1N 33.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2025 84 14.1N 33.8W 1011 27
0000UTC 22.09.2025 96 14.3N 36.8W 1010 33
1200UTC 22.09.2025 108 14.5N 40.3W 1010 35
0000UTC 23.09.2025 120 15.6N 43.6W 1010 34
1200UTC 23.09.2025 132 16.9N 46.9W 1012 31
0000UTC 24.09.2025 144 18.2N 50.0W 1013 31
1200UTC 24.09.2025 156 19.6N 53.3W 1012 34
0000UTC 25.09.2025 168 20.5N 55.8W 1010 33

[cycloneye]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the weekend through the middle of next week while it moves
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[TomballEd]

I'm taking the under. The MDR seems rather hostile near peak season. Thinking of the last lemon.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the weekend through the middle of next week while it moves
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Some gradual
development of this system is possible over the weekend through the
middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Nimbus]

Wave train coming off Africa is further south now so I would be just as happy if Cape Verde season would end early with poor MDR conditions that last into October. Probably going to see a west Caribbean storm before the end of the season though.

[Teban54]

0z CMC. The model has been among the main support for this wave, but this run is the furthest west and strongest. On this run, it actually appears to be some kind of a merge between this and the 0/0 wave to its west.



0z ICON also ends at a similar location. The model has also been on and off with development.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just off the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible through the middle to
latter part of next week while it moves west-northwestward across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just off the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible through the middle to
latter part of next week while it moves west-northwestward across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is
possible through the middle to latter part of next week while it
moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible through the middle to latter
part of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity well south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Some slow development of this system is possible through
the middle to latter part of next week while it moves
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity well southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Some slow development of this system is possible through
the middle to latter part of next week while it moves
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[GCANE]

Keeping an eye on this one.
ICON has it moving due west thru the MDR as a pouch

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS develops this system north of Bahamas, which then slams into New England.

CMC still running, but turns this thing into a trackable system east of the Bahamas, headed w/wnw.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity well west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. While development is unlikely during the next couple
of days, environmental conditions should gradually become more
favorable for slow development of this disturbance by the middle to
latter part of next week while it moves west-northwestward across
the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Hagen/Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity well west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Although development is unlikely during the next
couple of days, environmental conditions should gradually become
more favorable for slow development of this disturbance by the
middle to latter part of next week while it moves west-northwestward
to northwestward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Reinhart

[Kazmit]

Models have gotten more enthusiastic about this one today. The GFS has suggested a threat to New England the past two runs. The Euro shows a repeat of Gabrielle. The CMC and AI Euro threaten Bermuda.