WPAC: MATMO - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

93W INVEST 250929 0000 13.0N 140.0E WPAC 15 1009

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZSEP2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281952ZSEP2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 29SEP25 0000Z, TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.4N
172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 1417 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTPN33 PGTW 290300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) AT 28SEP25 1800Z, TYPHOON 26W (BUALOI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N
106.2E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS.
SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 282100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.0N
140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK AREA OF TURNING WITH
DISLODGED CELLS OF FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS
POORLY DEFINED AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5KT-10KT) VWS, WARM (28C-30C) SSTS AND GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONFIDENT
THIS BROAD AREA OF DISPLACED CONVECTION WILL CONSOLIDATE AND CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

EPS 00Z, deterministic is a TD before landfall

[Hayabusa]

Euro AI 12z, a little stronger 990 mb before landfall over Cagayan

[Hayabusa]

DeepMind 12z ensemble, FNV3 might be overhyping, it overhyped the intensity of pre-Bualoi

[Hayabusa]

up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 300230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/300230Z-300600ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.0N 140.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 476 NM
WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 292336Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED BUT
MORE DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT. A 292115Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LLC, WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND FRAGMENTED BANDING NEAR THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5KT-
10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28C-30C) SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM
AND REMOVED 25W (NEOGURI) INFORMATION DUE TO FINAL WARNING
EXPIRATION.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

First HFSA run makes it an STS before landfall over Cagayan

[Hayabusa]

12z

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 010130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 132.5E TO 16.3N 125.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 132.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.1N 135.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 633 NM
EAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 302214Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS, WARM (28C-
30C) SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020130Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

18z eps

[Hayabusa]

JMA TC warning

WTPQ50 ‎RJTD ‎010000
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎010000UTC ‎14.4N ‎131.8E ‎POOR
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎10KT
PRES ‎ ‎1006HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎030KT
GUST ‎ ‎045KT
FORECAST
24HF ‎ ‎020000UTC ‎15.0N ‎128.6E ‎70NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎08KT
PRES ‎ ‎1002HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
48HF ‎ ‎030000UTC ‎16.7N ‎124.0E ‎110NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎12KT
PRES ‎ ‎998HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎045KT
GUST ‎ ‎065KT
72HF ‎ ‎040000UTC ‎17.9N ‎117.9E ‎140NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎15KT
PRES ‎ ‎992HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎055KT
GUST ‎ ‎080KT
96HF ‎ ‎050000UTC ‎19.3N ‎113.0E ‎180NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎12KT
PRES ‎ ‎990HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎060KT
GUST ‎ ‎085KT
120HF ‎060000UTC ‎21.1N ‎108.6E ‎240NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎992HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎055KT
GUST ‎ ‎080KT ‎=

[Hayabusa]

1st warning

[Hayabusa]

06z eps, more areas of interest to watch for development aside from future Matmo...

[Hayabusa]

12z a little south than 06z

[Hayabusa]

JMA 18Z CI 2.0, might name as Matmo

[mrbagyo]

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS MATMO.

T2521(Matmo)
Issued at 2025/10/02 01:05 UTC
Analysis at 10/02 00 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°35′ (14.6°)
E127°35′ (127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 280 km (150 NM)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/dost_pagasa/status/1973768772864606440

[sasha_B]

Matmo got a raw ADT # of 5.9 (!) - T3.7 adjusted - at 1830z and a subjective Dvorak fix from OSPO of T4.0 at 1730z. Possibly approaching landfall at or near typhoon intensity.

[Hayabusa]

Jma up to STS