NATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion (60/70)

[Subtrop]

AL, 97, 2025101200, , BEST, 0, 81N, 317W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, SPAWNINVEST, al762025 to al972025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal972025.dat

[Category5Kaiju]

Maybe not as strong, but it does look like this will end up as a Lorenzo with a very similar track to the 2019 version of the same name.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the first model runs show this making a loop back to the west after it goes north

[Sciencerocks]

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025


Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
this week while it moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 15 to
20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025


Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
this week while it moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 15 to
20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Teban54]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025


Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
An area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
this week while it moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 15 to
20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[TomballEd]

Looked better yesterday.

[Sciencerocks]

Looked better yesterday.

True, but it certainly has a well defined LLC exposed with 20-25 knots of south-southwesterly shear. Until this decreases I don't expect it to be able to stack convection over the LLC. So probably a sheared mess until it exits the MDR and moves above 20. This is pretty much what intensity models show..

I

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025


Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
small area of low pressure located about 900 miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for further development of this system during
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the middle part of this week while it moves to the west-northwest
then northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[zhukm29]

Has gales, looks close now to becoming a tropical storm.