How strong will Melissa get?

[Teban54]

Options:

Cat 1 or TS (<80 kt)
Cat 2 (85-95 kt)
Cat 3 (100-110 kt)
Low-to-mid Cat 4 (115-125 kt)
High-end Cat 4 (130-135 kt)
Low-end Cat 5 (140-145 kt)
High-end Cat 5 (150-155 kt)
Top-tier Cat 5 (160+ kt)

Mods, can you make this a poll? Also, someone else is free to make another poll on pressure.

[cycloneye]

Done. Poll will close for voting next friday at 11:24 PM EDT.

[WaveBreaking]

I think that Melissa will at the very least come close to challenging the current MSLP record if everything goes in its favor (and maybe even Allen’s wind speed record too why not). The only reason I’m saying this is because all of the major hurricanes from this season wasted no time in taking advantage of favorable conditions when they presented themselves. The only thing I could see stopping Melissa from being close to record breaking is if the core structure is crappy or if the ambient pressure in the Caribbean is too high (right now it’s below average so it probably won’t be that).

Now watch Melissa ignore all the hurricane models and fall apart bc I predicted this

[sasha_B]

Voted for 160+ kts because like many here, I think the ceiling for Melissa is about as high as it gets, and we've already seen 3 Atlantic hurricanes overperform this year in conditions that weren't nearly as optimal. The fact that the storm is barely holding together right now, with Dvorak estimates between T2.0～2.5, and the NHC is nonetheless anticipating that it'll be Category 4 & likely still strengthening by the end of the forecast period, says everything. As for central pressure, I would bet on Melissa becoming the 7th Atlantic hurricane to drop below 900 hPa.

[chaser1]

969mb - 95 mph
Decided to bet my chips on the 8% unluckly GFS solution of an early northward exit through Haiti Do I think this will ultimately occur? Hell no but with every one else betting on Melissa achieving Cat 4, 5, 6, or 7 intensity.... I figure I'd "go low"

[FireRat]

Top tier because it's 2025

[CrazyC83]

In Patricia territory is my thinking.

Models are consistently showing a deep CDG ring, although the eye temperature could be an issue. Take off the wind shear and get a stacked center, and kaboom. As for lowest pressure? I'll be bold and say 864 mb.

[cheezyWXguy]

I went for low end cat5, but I’m acknowledging the potential for much higher. As crazy mentioned, the potential ceiling for this thing is absurd, but the tiniest fly in the ointment can tamp things down. A few extra knots of unexpected mid level shear, eyewall replacement cycles, and land interaction with Jamaica. I feel like the option I chose is a good averaging out among the range of scenarios but no matter what it should be interesting.

[ElectricStorm]

Also went low end Cat 5, but the ceiling for top-tier is there. Could also be a scenario where tracks over Jamaica and doesn't reach it's full potential intensity-wise but that would be devastating