WPAC: INVEST 93W

[Hayabusa]

93W INVEST 251128 1200 8.9N 150.1E WPAC 15 1009

[Hayabusa]

AI models seem to be really struggling in forecasting this than the previous TCs this year, latest 12z Euro AI just a low or weak TD and the Deepmind ensembles backed off too after both models were consistently showing a significant TC forming.

[Hayabusa]

EPS 18Z. Euro developing a TC but it's also going back and forth on development too. GFS barely development.

[Hayabusa]

Latest 12z Euro makes this a TS, Euro AI TD to possibly weak TS.

[Hayabusa]

JMA upgrades to TD

WWJP27 RJTD 011200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 138E WNW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/011800Z-020600ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 01DEC25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (KOTO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 111.5E, APPROXIMATELY 203 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.4N
138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 172 NM NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA.1.B.(1).//
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[Hayabusa]

00Z GDM, Euro ENS

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 030030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030030Z-030600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0N 135.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 134.4E, APPROXIMATELY 621 NM EAST
OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINES WITH GFS SHOWING A MORE
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE 93W MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND ECENS SHOWING HIGHER INTENSIFICATION THAN GEFS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM
AND REMOVED 33W (KOTO) INFORMATION DUE TO FINAL WARNING EXPIRATION.//
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[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 051900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 126.2E TO 11.0N 116.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 126.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.4N 127.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051346Z ASCAT REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS
STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE
PHILIPPINES, WITH ECENS SHOWING A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061900Z.//
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