SPAC: 10F - Tropical Depression

[Subtrop]

98P INVEST 260319 0600 9.7S 163.9E SHEM 15 0

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 10.7S 164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA,
SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC AND ISOLATED
POCKETS OF SHORT-LIVED FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR THE
AREA OF CONVECTION (98P) ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20KTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTERLY
AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS
SOUTH OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.1S 161.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STEADILY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND
WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON
FORMATION TIMELINE, BUT HOWEVER DO AGREE ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS DEVELOPING IN AROUND
30-36 HOURS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK,
TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA, OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.7S 161.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTH OF HONIARA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
DEVELOPING IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 212237Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
98P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29 C). THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE FORMATION
OF 98P THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, THOUGH BOTH MODEL TYPES AGREE
ON 98P TRACKING SOUTHWARD WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[sasha_B]

This one is starting to look much more organised, and some models (particularly HWRF) are showing the possibility of significant deepening as it develops and moves south-southeast towards NZ. I believe if it gets named east of 160E it'll be "Vaianu".

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.5S
162.2E AT 222100UTC. TD10F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING IN THE CONVERGENT FLOW. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW
SHEAR, GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS. DRY AIR
INTRUSION FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE AND VERY LOW TO LOW THEREAFTER.

[cycloneye]

ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 230855 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.6S
163.3E AT 230600UTC. TD10F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY WEAKENED WITH POOR ORGANISATION IN THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR
WHILST UPPER DIVERGENCE, VORTICITY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 28 DEGREE
CELSIUS. MEANWHILE, THERE ARE SIGNS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NOTHWESTERN QUADRANT THAT WOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO VERY LOW.

[cycloneye]

This is the last warning.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 232324 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 22.0S
163.4E AT 232100UTC. POSITION POOR. TD10F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 15 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC.
THE SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 27 DEGREE CELSIUS. MEANWHILE, THERE ARE SIGNS
OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND ANY DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT RSMC NADI'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY LATER TODAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT EXITS RSMC NADI'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS LOW TO VERY
LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY FOR THIS SYSTEM
UNLESS THE SITUATION CHANGES.