FL looking down possible gun barrel

[John]

Isabel has finally reached the Eastern periphery of the Sub Tropical Ridge ... consequently the Hurricane has turned Due West, Track and Global Models have been suggesting this motion for the past several runs. On this track Isabel will move well North of the Leeward Islands. Once again let me stress that the marksmanship of forecasting Tropical Cyclone land falls day's away is questionable at best. However that said, I am quite concerned with the upcoming evolving long range pattern that is setting up here, IMO most indications are still pointing to a land falling Hurricane along the Florida East coast. It is clearly to soon to even specify what portion of the coast is at greatest risk for landfall so for now I will take my best shot and hope you all leave me room for error.

MY EVENING THOUGHTS...
Even though the eye looks quite ragged I fully expect this to be temporary at best, Isabel is likely to continue heading Due West, by 2PM Sunday the Hurricane should be nearing the Bahamas, at that time I would expect The Government of the Bahamas to begin Issuing at the very least a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and a Hurricane Watch for the central Bahamas. The reason for the Hurricane Watch in the central Bahamas and not the southern Bahamas is because IMO there is going to be a slight weakness in the Ridge along 80 W this weakness should not force a NW component or even a turn Northward, there should be enough ridging left to bring the Hurricane Closer to the Central Florida coast. As Isabel begins nearing the FL coast the weak ridge will be shallow so this may serve to stagger the Hurricane just inland, this is what has me worried. It's at this point Isabel could stall for a while inland before heading North through the state or along it's coast line. Again this is subject to many changes, for now I feel confident this will be the end result, I just hope im wrong and the Idea is a bust.

ALL INTERESTS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

[dixiebreeze]

THANK YOU JOHN. INFORMATIVE AND THOUGHTFUL ANALYSIS. PROBABLY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MARK, THOUGH I'M THINKING SHE JUST MIGHT LANDFALL A BIT FARTHER S.