Isabel - 18z GFS animated look, storm and model discussion

[Stormsfury]

Isabel Discussion #1
Overview and Model Discussion
Present and potential future.

Hurricane Isabel as of this writing is a true powerhouse. Though the outflow is decent but somewhat restricted to the north and east of Isabel, the outflow to the west and southwest of Isabel is about as perfect as you'll ever see with a tropical cyclone. Isabel's cloud pattern continues to improve and the eye has significantly warmed, meaning Isabel has likely completed another eyewall replacement cycle. Isabel's SSD T numbers continue to clock in at a 6.5, or translation of 127 kts and a 935 mb pressure. In all likelihood, Isabel is probably 145 mph.

Saved 8:40 pm EDT
http://stormsfury1.com/Weather/Tropical ... geView.gif

Of the tropical models, the 18z GFDL is the furthest north of the tropical models while the A98E shows a curved hook eventually SW and discounted. The BAMD, BAMM, and LBAR are right in the middle of a continued overall west track, LBAR being right down the middle. The global models with the handling of Isabel in the short term are all in fairly remarkable agreement for the next few days. The globals are unanimous in developing a low pressure system off the SC/NC coast and bringing that system northward in the wake of an exiting high pressure ridge, and immediately behind that, another ridge left in the wake of that. This is reflected in the official forecast track as well from the NHC as the 72 hour vs 96 hour position shows an almost WNW track, from 96 hour to 120 hours, notice how the northward procression shuts down. There's only a 0.5ºN movement versus a 3.5ºW track or a just north of due west track. This 2nd turning is very reminiscent of the westward turn Andrew took. Later in the period, the globals are fairly in agreement in the ridge behind the exiting vort lobe in the range of about 1030 mb, and also wedging down the east side of the Appalachains.

The 12z UKMET is probably the most ominous looking ...
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

Extended...
This is where the model guidance begins to diverge some, but IMO, for the most part, in overall general agreement to bringing Isabel mostly westward and beginning to slow some in the Bahamas/SE FL. The EURO for the 4th night in a row indicates Isabel in the Central/Southern Bahamas and generally still heading in the direction of Southern Florida. For the 7th run in a row of the GFS, the 18z GFS indicating the same scenario. The globals are indicating a midwestern trough which first slows Isabel down quite a bit or even stall her for a time until the trough gets close enough to begin pulling Isabel towards the north.

18z GFS from an animated perspective -
http://stormsfury1.com/Weather/Tropical ... 91003.html

Day 7 EURO
http://stormsfury1.com/Weather/Tropical ... y7EURO.gif

Isabel is going to be the lead news story in the coming days as she continues westward across the Atlantic.

SF

[WeatherEmperor]

very dangerous

[wow]

Tropical models are now further north, and actually follow the GFDL track. BAMD is actually further north than the GFDL.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _model.gif

[Stormsfury]

Tropical models are now further north, and actually follow the GFDL track. BAMD is actually further north than the GFDL.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _model.gif

Noticed that right after I posted the discussion. In some regards, they're responding a little to the low pressure system that looks to spin up off the Carolina Coast in the next 24 hours or so. However, some of the models are indicating a tight little system, while others are indicating a more spread out system. Are the 00z tropical models burping? Not sure yet. We still have plenty of time to watch, but it serves to put the entire Southeast on notice. Does this system try to catch Isabel or when a new ridge rebuilds behind the system, shoves it straight back to the west. The high that's progged to build behind this low is running around 1030mb ... quite strong for this time of year.

SF

[PTrackerLA]

The GFS shows a practically 90 degree turn to the north once Isabel gets over south florida. It will take a heck of a trough to recurve a storm that sharply that far south. It's hard to believe Isabel is still about 7-8 days away from landfall.

[Steve H.]

Right now this could be a Carolina storm. Tomorrow back to Miami.

[ColinD]

Right now this could be a Carolina storm. Tomorrow back to Miami.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/preview?gameId=232562390

Loser can have the storm

[Floridacane]

Colin
What you just posted was really weird. With the possibility of this storm hitting between the Carolinas and SFl, that was just uncanny. Hopefully it'll be a tie, nobody loses and she goes away.

[chris_fit]

LOL Colin!!!!