Good evening everyone. Isabel is the only game in town in the Atlantic tonight and a monster it is at dangerous cat 4 status. The 11 PM EDT advisory has the center of Isabel at latitude 21.1 north, longitude 52.8 west or about 1180 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Isabel is moving towards the west at near 10 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This will keep the center of Isabel north of Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antillies. High waves will begin in Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antillies due to swells on Thursday and continue through the upcoming weekend as well. Over the past 6-8 hours, Isabel has even moved slightly south of due west. At 5 PM, the latitude was 21.2 n, now it's 21.1 north. There is no indication of a real curve away from the United States. This is because of a ridge of high pressure situated north of the hurricane. That ridge is expected to bridge west, thus the hurricane will likely follow that west track towards the southeastern United States by Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Early hurricane preparation should begin in the southeastern United States in anticipation of this moving closer!! There are no guarantees 7-8 days out, but my concern level is going up and folks in the southeastern US and the Bahamas need to pay close attention to Isabel, I'll say that now.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to 145 mph with higher gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and such the case for the next 24 hours. However Isabel is expected to remain a major category 4 hurricane throughout the 5 day forecast period. There is no outflow to the north of the hurricane, but there are two outflow channels, one on the west side of the hurricane, one on the east side of the hurricane. A beautifully symmetric hurricane and quite dangerous as well.
Hurricane force winds extend outward 60 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward 185 miles. Minimum central pressure estimated by satellite is 935 mb or 27.61 inches. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Isabel on Friday as the hurricane will be west of 60 degrees longitude at that time.
A very dangerous hurricane and one we should take seriously in the Bahamas and southeastern US in the next week. This would be a good time to review your hurricane preparation plans in case Isabel becomes a direct threat as we're seeing it now. Better to be safe than be caught unprepared!!! That's the main message I'm giving you folks in the southeast coast tonite!!!
More updates on Isabel throughout the night!!!
Jim
ISABEL DISCUSSION AND FORECAST, advice to folks in SE US...
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