Easy Way to Reduce Uncertainty

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MWatkins
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Easy Way to Reduce Uncertainty

#1 Postby MWatkins » Fri Sep 12, 2003 4:49 pm

Here's an easy way to take some of the uncertainty out of the forecast track.

Just ignore day 4 and 5 for now and react like you would have last year when we only got 3 day tracks.

INITIAL 12/2100Z 21.8N 58.6W 140 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 21.9N 59.9W 140 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 22.4N 62.1W 135 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 23.0N 64.3W 135 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 23.6N 66.3W 130 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 24.5N 69.5W 125 KT

Living in south Florida...even tough the large scale features suggest that a system should be turning north away from where I live...I would be concerned about a 125 knot hurricane south of my latitude.

Because...after all...the error rate is 300NM on day 5...which happens to be the difference between the current 5 day position and Vero Beach FL.

Nobody is in the clear yet...but I would rather be in SFL than SC/NC.

MW
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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#2 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Fri Sep 12, 2003 4:53 pm

Nobody is in the clear yet...but I would rather be in SFL than SC/NC.




me too!!
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#3 Postby Aquawind » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:01 pm

Well Said MW !!
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WeatherEmperor
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#4 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:58 pm

You can even use some of those well said lines to get a girl on this board bro. They fall for this kind of weather talk.
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:02 pm

Isabel is a double whammy.

I have half-sisters in Florida, and obviously myself and my father/stepmother here near Charleston, SC. I also have a very dear and close friend in JAX. You do the math.

SF
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#6 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:24 pm

Nicely put Mike. Thanks.
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#7 Postby TampaFl » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:51 pm

Agree 100% MWatkins.
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