Floridians can breath more easy today than yesterday

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:14 am

Although Isabel is south of Floridas latituds 25n-30n all the synoptic patterns that I haved seen indicates that the Florida Penninsula is out of the woods from Isabel.However it doesn't mean the those who live in florida will not pay attention to Isabel but compared with 3 days ago today the all clear sign has comed for you.

The problems for a landfall IF the landfall will happen at all somewhere from North Carolina and points north from there.Avila said it very good at the discussion about florida.

A note is that still there is a chance for Isabel to miss all the east coast if the ridges and troughs behave accordinly and timing will be key for Isabel to go out to sea.

#2 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:18 am

cycloneye.....I was just looking at this and I noticed the trough looks to be pulling up and weakening over Texas. Also the high above the hurricane looks to be building. My local mets run this scenario and said if it happened it would move more WNW??? What do you think?

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:22 am

Yes WNW will be the track for the next several days followed by a NW track and at that point the tricky timing comes for the east coast north of SC or out to sea or a landfall from NC northward.

greccogirl · #4 Postby **greccogirl** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:27 am

I think at this stage of the game it would be very foolish for anyone to think Florida is out of the game. Go this website:

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

It clearly shows TWO of the computer models putting Isabel into Florida. It is simply too early to tell. Hurricanes are just notorious for not doing what you think they should, so if you are in Florida I'd sure pay attention and not go on like it won't affect you! : 8-)

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:29 am

I dont know if this helps any but according to NWS our low over texas and gulf will be replaced by a high with strong ridging to our west. Does that mean anything?

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:33 am

Welcome to storm2k and enjoy all of what we have.

About those models the tropical suite has been not good for Isabel as they take a south track but the global models have a much better data of the enviroment ahead and from tonight the fine tuning of those globals will show up as the survelliance jet goes to sample the upper enviroment and that data will get into the models tonight such as UKMET,GFS,NOGAPS and the Euro.

wrkh99 · #7 Postby **wrkh99** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:38 am

How can you say that Cyclone eye ?

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:44 am

That A98E tropical model is a joke because ithas been all over the place going to colombia 2 days ago and other runs dropping to cuba so there you have it.

Guest · #9 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:50 am

Ceye,

We need to be responsible and keep everyone prepared - I don't think its a safe bet for ANYONE in Florida to say they are in the clear. I hope everyone listens to the offiicial forecasts and makes full preparations. Isabel is still 5 - 7 days from Florida.

Ceye you are entiltled to your opininon but I think its very immature to say someone is in the clear when the storm is still days out.

Patricia

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:56 am

Yes ticka I know that the major cane is far away from the east coast and many things can happen but I am looking at the patterns ahead that will steer Isabel to the north of Florida and there are signs of that but yes I agree with you that until it clears the latitud of Florida you can't sound the all clear officially but I see better things for Florida today than yesterday.

WeatherNLU · #11 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:58 am

Many of the models have been a joke jumping from one place to another. The problem is the amount of faith people put in the models. Forget the models for 10 seconds. The storm is STILL moving just barely north of due west. It's crossed 60 south of 22, and it's taken over 9 degrees of longitude (540 miles) to make one degree of latitude. Until I see a change in the movement of the storm, I'm not impressed with the forecasted northerly turn. For the people on the east coast's sake, I sure hope she makes this magical turn to the north soon, otherwise someone, and I mean ANYONE on the east coast from Miami up to Maine is under to gun. It's just too early to tell right now........we've only had one recon sampling mission and since it, the tropical models have come way back to the south.

WeatherNLU · #12 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:03 am

P.S. The WREL model map has not been updated with the 6Z run. NONE, and I mean NONE of those models now have Isabel north of 25N all the way through 120 hours.

I think now more than ever Florida, along with everyone else needs to be very vigilant.

Guest · #13 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:07 am

I agree NLU - too much is put into the model forecasting and the accuracy in null to zero 2 or 3 days out. No one is in the clear. Only Puerto Rico looks to have escaped a serious threat from Isabel.

If anything I wish this one would be a FISH - no one needs to have this type of devastation - but it looks like someone will eventually have to deal with her - where that is - NO ONE KNOWS. So all must be prepared.

OtherHD · #14 Postby **OtherHD** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:07 am

For what it's worth, I agree with cycloneye. Florida is safe from Isabel. If that makes me immature, fine, but call me in 5 days when Isabel is hundreds of miles away from Florida and moving NW. :wink:

#15 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:10 am

ditto....

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:11 am

NLU soon the 12:00 Tropical model suite comes out and let's see what they have instored.

caribepr · #17 Postby **caribepr** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:19 am

[quote="ticka1"]No one is in the clear. Only Puerto Rico looks to have escaped a serious threat from Isabel.
[/quote]

We are?? I'll think safe from a serious threat after the flood/small craft advisory/high surf warnings all go away - and quit having this stupid feeling Isabel still has a chance to go to Columbia 8-)

We have been incredibly fortunate so far! But if you want to feel like a bit of "my boat is so small and the sea is so large" a glance at the sat over the Caribbean this morning will do the trick...that's MY model!

hurricanedude · #18 Postby **hurricanedude** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:26 am

Agreed HD..........

wrkh99 · #19 Postby **wrkh99** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:40 am

Models are Shifting south now . And Florida is more at risk now .

OtherHD · #20 Postby **OtherHD** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:45 am

WHICH models wrkh? ALL of them? Or just the tropicals?

Floridians can breath more easy today than yesterday

Floridians can breath more easy today than yesterday

I wouldn't count Florida Out

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