Here's something to ease South Floridian's minds

JetMaxx · #1 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:59 am

I can find no record of a major hurricane at 22N and 61W that's ever struck SoFla....not when they became hurricanes east of 40W or crossed 20N before reaching 50W (Donna and the severe Florida hurricane of Sept 1947 both became hurricanes east of 40W -- but were much farther south than 20N when they crossed 50W).

On the flipside....Isabel is in the same area where the horrific "Long Island Express" was in 1938...as well as the "Great Atlantic Coast" hurricane of 1944 and the "Sea Islands" hurricane of 1893 that killed 2000 along the Georgia/South Carolina coast.

Ironically, the 1938 severe hurricane that struck New England was forecasted to strike south Florida....because it was heading steadily in that direction (just as Isabel is doing) before recurving unexpectedly and roaring northward east of Cape Hatteras and across Long Island with absolutely no warning. :o :o (thankfully that lack or warning won't occur this time).

If you believe climatology....Floridians can breath a sigh of relief...while residents from Savannah to Boston worry and prepare.

Just something I thought many would find interesting....

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:02 pm

As always Perry very interesting what you bring from the historic side of things.

ameriwx2003 · #3 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:02 pm

Perry.. great info

:):)

#4 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:04 pm

I agree. This is clearly not a South Florida storm. I dont understand why some are still acting all paranoid like its gonna wipe us off the face of the earth. Max Mayfield himself said that he does not believe in all his sincerity that Isabel will be a South Florida storm. I am from South Florida and I dont think it will come here at all. Lets just wait for the NOAA data later on tonight. Hopefully that will silence the ones who say "Florida hit" all the time.

#5 Postby **Deenac813** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:06 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:I agree. This is clearly not a South Florida storm. I dont understand why some are still acting all paranoid like its gonna wipe us off the face of the earth. Max Mayfield himself said that he does not believe in all his sincerity that Isabel will be a South Florida storm. I am from South Florida and I dont think it will come here at all. Lets just wait for the NOAA data later on tonight. Hopefully that will silence the ones who say "Florida hit" all the time.

I agree that Panic is not a good thing.. but you as a south floridian should know and be sensitive to the fact that everyone said Andrew was not going to hit us either.. There are just regular people & not mets & do not understand weather patterns etc.. that is why people are concerned.. I am watchful too here in south florida but I do not think this is our storm.

Deena

opera ghost · #6 Postby **opera ghost** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:31 pm

By the same token- (according to my lovely little tracker) Only 1 category 5 hurricane has started formation east of 47(Floyd)- Isabell started formation almost 12 degrees east.

Only one Hurricane has ever *reached* Cat5 intensity east of 53 (Allen). Isabel was categorized around 42.

She's been breaking a lot of records- and what ARE records- if not boundries formed by other hurricanes that broke outside the box.

I'm NOT saying that florida is going to get hit- only that historic data is already leaning against Isabel having ever become what she is. It's time to pay attention to what is actully going on today. Hurricanes don't check books.

((Edited to correct Allen from 55 (Which he was west of) to 53 which he reached cat5 at))

mf_dolphin · #7 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:37 pm

Climatology is great but there isn't enough statictical information for this type of storm in this area to make any difference. I agree it's great to look at history but history does not influence Isabel. I tend to agree that S Florida is looking better from a landfall perspective but until the turn actually begins all bets are off.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:59 pm

Looking at history has a set in stone example is not very worthwhile.

I can't remeber any many canes have had this many variables. So history really isn't something to look as something to base on imo.

#9 Postby **seaswing** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:15 pm

So not a Soth Fla hurricane, what about a N Fla./GA hurricane?

#10 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:18 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:Climatology is great but there isn't enough statictical information for this type of storm in this area to make any difference. I agree it's great to look at history but history does not influence Isabel. I tend to agree that S Florida is looking better from a landfall perspective but until the turn actually begins all bets are off.

Climatology has been blown at least a few times this year already.

Here's something to ease South Floridian's minds

Here's something to ease South Floridian's minds

Climatology

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