My Isabel Forecast: very dangerous hurricane heading for NC

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JetMaxx

My Isabel Forecast: very dangerous hurricane heading for NC

#1 Postby JetMaxx » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:13 pm

After much analysis of the 00z model data, I've shifted my forecast track slightly farther west...but now have increasing confidence this will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane at landfall....and that it will strike eastern North Carolina in the Morehead City to Ocracoke area..possibly as a record hurricane for the this area. On my projected track, the area around Tidewater Virginia and Chesapeake Bay will be hit very hard...as will Washington D.C., Baltimore, and the Maryland coast from Ocean City southward.

I strongly urge all coastal residents to heed HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS when they be issued. Don't hesitate to evacuate if ordered---this hurricane will IMHO put water (storm surge flooding) into areas where it's never occurred before...at least in any of our lifetimes. My highest strike threat is between Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and Atlantic City, New Jersey....with the highest threat in eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia.

CURRENTLY:
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 13
11 PM EST...23.0N - 63.7W...135 KT (Isabel has weakened slightly since late afternoon over the cooler upwelled waters churned up by hurricane Fabian)


FORECAST:
SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 14
11 AM EST...24.0N - 66.0W...135 KT
11 PM EST...25.0N - 68.0W...140 KT

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 15
11 AM EST...25.8N - 69.6W...145 KT
11 PM EST...26.5N - 71.3W...140 KT

TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 16
11 AM EST...28.5N - 73.3W...135 KT
11 PM EST...30.1N - 74.9W...130 KT

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 17
11 AM EST...32.0N - 75.5W...125 KT
11 PM EST...33.8N - 76.2W...120 KT (Approaching landfall near Cape Lookout, NC...landfall intensity 120 kts)

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 18
11 AM EST...37.0N - 77.0W...100 KTS (Just west of Norfolk, VA)
11 PM EST...40.0N - 78.0W....60 KTS (Over south-central Pennsylvania)

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 19
11 AM EST...44.0N - 80.5W....50 KTS..BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL near Toronto, Ontario)
11 PM EST...EXTRATROPICAL
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rainstorm

#2 Postby rainstorm » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:19 pm

very dangerous indeed
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Constructionwx

#3 Postby Constructionwx » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:19 pm

Very credible solution Perry.

RP
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JtSmarts
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#4 Postby JtSmarts » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:29 pm

Another excellent and informative post!
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hurricanedude
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#5 Postby hurricanedude » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:30 pm

Perry, if this verifies, SE VIRGINIA will have a FACE LIFT FOR SURE!!!
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JetMaxx

#6 Postby JetMaxx » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:39 pm

One thing I'd like to caution folks....at this distance (4 days from landfall)....don't focus on the exact landfall point...the margin of error is 200 miles or more....if I lived anywhere between upper South Carolina and southern New England, I'd be very concerned..
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Sep 14, 2003 12:26 am

JetMaxx ... well thought out and pretty much on target ...

SF
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Guest

#8 Postby Guest » Sun Sep 14, 2003 12:31 am

Great info Perry and like SF said i pretty much agree as well!:)
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Colin
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#9 Postby Colin » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:49 am

I'm getting ready up here, too, because according to LC, GG, all those people, as well as awesome mets like you guys, I may get cracked...
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