ooz run the short range ETA

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John
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ooz run the short range ETA

#1 Postby John » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:49 pm

ooz run the short range ETA I believe now since the mission has been completed includes data gathered from the gulf stream jet. This is where you all need to start paying close attention, this Model has been performing very well. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the ridge is building in toward the West and the second trough is not as strong as earlier indicated.
John
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Steve H.
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#2 Postby Steve H. » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:52 pm

However, the GFS still looks north....only out to 30 hours. But the other thing is, if Isabel doesn't go NNW right now she'd never reach that position in time.
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#3 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:09 pm

John, it seems to me that if Isabel remains a formidable hurricane, at least Cat. 3 to 5, no trough now being touted will manage to sharply steer her NW or N. The NHC at 11 p.m. didn't seem all that impressed with the second trough and gave up completely on the first.
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#4 Postby HurricaneQueen » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:18 pm

How will we know if the recon data has been incorporated? Will we have to wait until the morning (meaning it's bedtime} or could they magically appear anytime and how will use novices knoe the differnce?

Hi, Dixie!!! :wink:
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John
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dixiebreeze about the trough

#5 Postby John » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:20 pm

The second trough is nothing to really be impressed about, the energy is excelling into Canada tomorrow and this trough will also become negatively tilted east to west, this would allow the Ridge to keep building in westward as I see it right now.
John
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ColdFront77

#6 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Sep 14, 2003 12:36 am

It makes sense to me... continual indications of something and now we see it and data is at least somewhat contradictory.
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Sep 14, 2003 12:39 am

The ETA initialized Isabel as a 1008 mb shallow system and also underplayed the first trough making it a bit weaker ... Since the ETA initialized Isabel as a weak and shallow system, of course, it won't be picked up. Bad run this time from the ETA in regards to Isabel.

SF
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