GFDL intensity is a farce...

[JetMaxx]

I haven't seen the 00z GFDL yet, but the 18z intensity forecast is a joke...a fantasy..


To begin with, the 18z initialized Isabel at 919 mb and 116 kts -- when everyone knows around that time, recon was finding 158 kts at flight level = 140-145 kt at the surface...

Now the worse part....the 12 hour GFDL forecast? At 06z the forecast was 960 mb and 85 kts....recon just found 940 mb and 116 kts at flight level (likely 100-105 kts at the surface) in the SW or WEAK quadrant....if the initial and 12 forecast intensity is so bogus, why on earth should anyone believe the 120 hour progg of 90 kts will be accurate as the hurricane passes east of Cape Hatteras...

The point? Both the SHIPS and GFDL guidance are flawed right now (neither forecast the rapid deepening to cat-4 or cat-4 status). Unless something totally unforseen occurs, hurricane Isabel will be a powerful monster at least up until she crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream...if not for many miles beyond.

Just my observations and .02 cents worth...