Mid Atlantic threat with Isabel, current obs and forecast

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning everyone. A nasty setup along the mid atlantic coast remains in place with Hurricane Isabel expected to hit between North Carolina and New England later this week. At 11 AM EDT, Hurricane Isabel is a very strong cat 4/borderlined cat 5 hurricane with 155 mph maximum sustained winds.


At 11 AM EDT, the center of dangerous hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 23.7 north, longitude 66.3 west or about 370 miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Isabel is moving toward the west northwest at near 12 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This will keep the hurricane just north of the eastern Bahamas through the next 24 hours. A very close call, too close for comfort from the Bahamas all the way over to the northern Leeward Islands. Quite lucky so far!!!

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a strong category 4, borderelined category 5 hurricane on the saffir simpson scale. A category 5 hurricane is defined with winds greater than 155 mph. So a category 5 starts essentially at 156 mph and over. 155 mph is a strong cat 4. A difference of 1 mph is not that dramatic. This hurricane is still capable of catastropic damage.

Minimum central pressure is 939 mb or 27.73 inches.

The forecast track takes Isabel wnw for the next 24 hours. Then a turn towards the northwest is expected ahead of a trough off the southeast US coast. The southeast US trough will be replaced by a second trough moving in from the west later this week. A ridge of high pressure north of the hurricane will most likely drive the hurricane towards the east coast before the second trough shoves it out of the way. The bottom line is all residenta along the east coast, especially from South Carolina northward into new england really need to keep an eye on this potentially dangerous situation Thursday and Friday of this week. If you folks prepared for Isabel, good for you. I hope more folks prepare early for this. The intensity is always tough to predict. However Isabel could reach the outer banks and VAB as a category 3 hurricane before moving up the Chesapeake Bay as a strong category 1, minimal category 2 hurricane. To put that in perspective, that is stronger than Hazel back in 1954 for DC and Baltimore and it would be devastating also. So even folks in the Chesapeake Bay region need to prepare for this hurricane. This isn't a preparation drill, this is the real thing, which potentially could cause property damage. It's better to be prepared and get prepared now just in case. Don't wait until the last minute.

More updates on this later today!!!

Jim