Isabel 1st cane E of 40W to 1st hit U.S. N of SC since 1851?

[LarryWx]

IF Isabel first comes ashore the U.S. on the east coast in NC or further north, it will be the first time a storm that first became a hurricane east of 40W and south of 20N (per the records) first hits the east coast north of SC since AT LEAST 1851 and the first to hit the U.S. at all since Donna of 1960. There have been 37 storms that first became a hurricane east of 40W and south of 20N since 1851 per records. Four of those hit the U.S. (Donna of 1960, storm #4 of 1947, storm #6 of 1893, and storm #9 of 1893), but they all first hit in either FL , GA, or SC.

[cycloneye]

As always Larry interesting piece of history you brought us and Isabel may have many records to keep when all is set and done.

[OtherHD]

Good info Larry. Could you please look up to see how many hurricanes have become cat5's on two or more separate occasions? Besides Allen, I can't think of any others...

[Stormsfury]

Good info Larry. Could you please look up to see how many hurricanes have become cat5's on two or more separate occasions? Besides Allen, I can't think of any others...

Hurricane Andrew in 1992.. did it twice...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/andreweasy.html

[Constructionwx]

Hey Larry,

Good to see you.

I've got $15 on Savannah !

RP

[LarryWx]

Hey Larry,

Good to see you.

I've got $15 on Savannah !

RP

Good to see you too. Well, I hope you have about 30:1 or higher odds payoff for a win! I'd say the chance for Savannah to get a direct hit is about 3%.

[Constructionwx]

Are looking at the real weather or model guidance?

The reason I ask, (aside from being a pure novice) is this - shouldn't it have already made a noticable turn N?

RP

[Stormsfury]

Are looking at the real weather or model guidance?

The reason I ask, (aside from being a pure novice) is this - shouldn't it have already made a noticable turn N?

RP

RECON fixes and Satellite imagery suggest the turn is happening now.
RECON indicated a 310 movement.

SF

[justlooking]

setting a record? Izzy's huge!
Thanks,
Lu

[JetMaxx]

It's going to turn RP...if it's a rounded turn, it only means landfall may be in the Myrtle Beach to Wilmington area...as the LBAR is hinting...

That's about as far west as I see it coming, and that's a longshot. The UKMet has actually trended farther east...as the GFDL trended west -- if they are correct, it'll the first landfalling Delaware/ New Jersey hurricane in 100 years, and possibly the first major landfalling hurricane in that area since at least 1821...182 years ago :o

[Constructionwx]

Thanks Mike & Perry,

As I sit and stare at it on the Noaa loop, it is very hard to fathom something that size getting turned N.

OT - Mike how is your Dad?

RP

[spaceisland]

I know the NHC said WNW until tomorrow, but every hour that goes by is going to require a more dramatic northerly turn. It cannot be more than 280-285 degrees right now. In the next 200 miles, we had better see a 310 degree heading or North Florida/Georgia could at least be brushed by TS force winds.

[cycloneye]

Bump