MODELS FAIL TO ANALYZE ALL DATA -- NHC 5 P.M. MORE WEST?....

[dixiebreeze]

Hurricane Isabel Discussion Number 35

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 14, 2003

the afternoon plethora of recon wind and pressure data indicate that
Isabel remains barely below category 5 intensity. Air Force reserve
hurricane hunters measured 700 mb flight-level winds of 150 kt...or
135 kt surface equivalent...in the northeast quadrant of the
eyewall...while a NOAA hurricane hunter dropsonde report indicated
171 kt average winds in the lower 150 meters...or 139 surface wind
equivalent. Based on this information...Isabel is being maintained
at 135 kt. The outflow pattern remains very impressive and has
continued to expand.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11. There is no significant
change to the previous 2 forecast tracks or reasonings. Recon fix
positions have been coming in right on track and the latest 12z NHC
model guidance continues to converge about the previous 2 forecast
tracks. The latest GFDL run has continued its westward shift in the
forecast track and the 96-120h track is at least 90 nmi west of the
00z track. One disturbing bit of information is that the 12z
UKMET... GFS...GFDL...and Canadian models did not analyze the 500
mb height and wind fields to the 12z Bermuda upper-air observation
of 10 kt northeast wind and 5940 meter height. This observation
suggests that the ridge to the north of Bermuda and Isabel extends
southwestward farther than those four models are indicating. More
ridging would suggest that...at least in the short term... Isabel
should move farther west than these models are forecasting before
the hurricane begins to turn northwestward. Only the NOGAPS model
initialized the 500 mb properly to the Bermuda observation...and
the 12z NOGAPS track is to the left or west of the previous and
current forecast tracks. The official forecast track is just an
extension of the previous track and is a little to the west and
slightly faster than the model consensus. There remains some
uncertainty on where the exact landfall of Isabel could occur since
the developing central U.S. Trough could still deepen and dig more
southward than the models are indicating. This could induce a more
northward motion and result in landfall farther up the U.S. East
coast. But as in the previous several model runs...a large and very
strong north-south oriented ridge is forecast to remain east of
Isabel and prevent the hurricane from recurving northeastward.

Only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected for the next
couple of days as Isabel is forecast to move over sightly warmer
water and remain in a favorable upper-level outflow pattern. By 96
hours...Isabel is forecast to begin accelerating north or
north-northwestward under increasing southerly upper-level flow.
However...the central core of Isabel is expected to remain east of
the strongest winds and under 15-25 kt 200 mb flow. This would tend
to keep Isabel stronger than what the SHIPS intensity model has
been indicating...especially since Isabel will be moving over the
warm gulfstream offshore North Carolina just prior to landfall.

Forecaster Stewart

[Stormsfury]

When NHC means more west, they're referring to a little more west than the GFS/GFDL/UKMET/Canadian ... NOGAPS initialized the 500mb heights properly and has the correct Bermuda observation ...

This does not mean Isabel won't turn ... but an out to sea solution is less likely and a Mid-Atlantic hit is more likely...

SF

[Josephine96]

Not good news... If the ridge is stronger than the models indicate.. Isabel will continue a westward movement..

Florida is not DEAD YET... we're on life support.. trying to avoid falling into a coma lol

[PTrackerLA]

Josephine do you really want a cat. 4/5 storm, if so I hope you still have a house to come home to...

[Josephine96]

LOL PT.. No.. I do not WANT a Cat 4/5 storm.. 1 or 2 maybe.. but not a 5..

[Deenac813]

Not good news... If the ridge is stronger than the models indicate.. Isabel will continue a westward movement..

Florida is not DEAD YET... we're on life support.. trying to avoid falling into a coma lol

I agree it is not good news.. but not for Florida.. this just means maybe SC will be more in danger?? am I right here.. help me out gang

[Josephine96]

I think you're right Deena.. I just wish everyone would quit ASSUMING that I WANT a Cat 4/5 storm.. That is insanely ludicrous.. lol

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

John.....don't worry....be happy!!!

[dixiebreeze]

Deena, I'm inclined at this point in time to think landfall could be anywhere from Cape Canaveral to JVille to Charleston. I still think Florida will get a piece of Isabel, albeit (hopefully) not a large chunk

[Deenac813]

Deena, I'm inclined at this point in time to think landfall could be anywhere from Cape Canaveral to JVille to Charleston. I still think Florida will get a piece of Isabel, albeit (hopefully) not a large chunk

You really think so Dixie?? This is the first time since Isabel was born that I have been feeling better about a no florida hit.. I am hoping when I wake up tomorrow that baby has started to turn..

[dixiebreeze]

Deena, of course what I guess is just my humble opinion. But given the failure of the models (or those who provided input to the models) to account for all data, it does not seem over the top to stick with a more westerly-southerly landfall.

[Deenac813]

Deena, of course what I guess is just my humble opinion. But given the failure of the models (or those who provided input to the models) to account for all data, it does not seem over the top to stick with a more westerly-southerly landfall.

But you know what.. you are intitled to your opinion.. I just hope it is wrong! as you know, I value you posts & I appreciate your comments & opinions

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

dixiebreeze ...i value your opinion....i have been watching you replies and believe you.

[tpr1967]

Guys for all you who think it's going to hit florida it's not. Have you seen the wv loops and that trough in the middle of the country. Respectfully that storm is not coming here. I'm in florida also. I to like to see some stormy weather but a cat 4 or 5 I'll pass. I enjoy reading your posts and as you can see do not post much just lurk. I have noticed on alot of different boards including this one. depending where you live the storms coming to your area even if model consensus is for it not to. Again not trying to be an idiot but it gets old after awhile. There will be more storms to track this year. Let's pray the people being affect by this storm make it through ok.

Tom

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks Deena and Hugo Vet -- all of our opinions are valuable. Just study and learn -- that's what I try to do.