Isabel prediction.

[bahamaswx]

I am pretty much throwing all the models out the window here due to their failure to compensate for gyrodynamics and their failure at forecasting the strengths of the ridge, and the trough.

The ridge is proving much stronger than thought and in turn will keep Isabel moving westward longer than previously anticipated. In my view when you couple the ridge along with the powerful gyrodynamics of Isabel, she will continue WNW straight up until landfalling somewhere near Melbourne, Florida... remaing unaffected by the trough, which she will easily plow through. There is also a very apparant weakness between the ridge and the ULL, which any other storm this year would have jumped into, but due to Isabel's powerful gyrodynamic forces, she continues WNW.

On the other hand, the only way she would turn is if she weakened a bit, which seems unlikely due to the fact that she's an annular hurricane (typically maintain structure and intensity for longer periods) and the conditions ahead are favorable.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Joe96......you reading this????.....lol

[Stormchaser16]

Ummmmmmm ok.... thats why Isabel headed 310 degrees between fixes, preceeding a NW turn right?

[Scott_inVA]

I am pretty much throwing all the models out the window here due to their failure to compensate for gyrodynamics and their failure at forecasting the strengths of the ridge, and the trough.

The ridge is proving much stronger than anticipated and in turn will keep Isabel moving westward longer than previously anticipated. In my view when you couple the ridge along with the powerful gyrodynamics of Isabel, she will continue WNW straight up until landfalling somewhere near Melbourne, Florida... remaing unaffected by the trough, which she will easily plow through. There is also a very apparant weakness between the ridge and the ULL, which any other storm this year would have jumped into, but due to Isabel's powerful gyrodynamic forces, she continues WNW.

Er, NO. Not going to happen but a pretty spiffy wishcaster.

[Josephine96]

LOL Charleston.. yes I am reading that.. we shall see what happens as she continues to go WNW

[bahamaswx]

Thanks for the warm welcome on my first forecast posted here.

Have fun watching your models that mean little to nothing when trying to forecast a storm like this with incredibly powerful gyrodynamic forces.

[Deenac813]

Thanks for the warm welcome on my first forecast posted here.

Have fun watching your models that mean little to nothing when trying to forecast a storm like this with incredibly powerful gyrodynamic forces.

Welcome Bahamas.. I think maybe people are getting a little stressed out with a CAT4/5 storm out there.. I understood your post & appreciate it even if I think it will not happen.... and WELCOME!!

[Josephine96]

Bahamas- I hate to say it but you're right.. The storm is not gonna do what a computer says it will.. It's only gonna do what it wants to do.. If it's right with what the computer says.. then so be it.. but otherwise.. it'll do what it wants..

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I agree with ya bahamas...!!

[bahamaswx]

In my opinion the trough won't even come close to matching to gyrodynamic forces of Isabel (assuming she remains so powerful)... resulting in no turn.

[Deenac813]

In my opinion the trough won't even come close to matching to gyrodynamic forces of Isabel (assuming she remains so powerful)... resulting in no turn.

I sure hope you are wrong.. no offense.. that brings her right near me (or north of me) either way it would be a disaster for the insurance industry in Florida.. and since I am an insurance agent by profession it would really stink.. not to mention all the damage etc.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

hummmmmmmm....another HUGO!!....

[chris_fit]

uh oh.... air force met is coming

Cheers!
~Chris

[BEER980]

bahamaswx Welcome to the board. Your statement just comes across kinda strong for a first post. I don't think you can just throw all the models out. While we do have an Annular huricane here, the models should just have a problem with intensity. They may be off here and there but I doubt there is a 1,000 mile error in them. I would be suprised to see Isabel hit Florida but your mileage and wobble will vary. Let's see where it is in a few days.

[Stormchaser16]

The problem Bahamas is that it isnt essentially the trough that will turn Isabel, but rather a weakness in the ridge that will build as the trough moves in. Isabel is already nearing the SW periphery of the ridge and should soon start a more NW component.

[Air Force Met]

I'm not coming yet...but I will be back because this in not worth even talking about except to say " I told you so".

[bahamaswx]

There's already a weakness between the ridge and the ULL she should have jumped into, but her gyrodynamics kept her going. You will see in time that her gyrodynamics will also "pull" the ridge along with her. Wherever she goes the ridge is sure to follow.

[Air Force Met]

We will see....we will see. All I ask is that you stick around after this is over. I know I will...will you?

[ColdFront77]

There's already a weakness between the ridge and the ULL she should have jumped into, but her gyrodynamics kept her going. You will see in time that her gyrodynamics will also "pull" the ridge along with her. Wherever she goes the ridge is sure to follow.

Maybe Isabel is in her creating "her" own environment after all with this motion.

Nice to see you here, bahamaswx.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=13573

[Air Force Met]

SHe's not. SHe's following the flow around the high. The ridge will not follow her. If there are any doubts...wait about another day or 2...then there won't be any more.