From HPC - Model differences MINOR -

[Stormsfury]

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

MDL DIFFS THIS CYCLE SEEM RELATIVELY MINOR. ALONG THE
E COAST... ALTHOUGH THE NRN VORT THAT THE GFS GENERATES
AROUND 30 HRS APPEARS SUSPECT... MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
RECOMMENDS GOING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ETA WITH THE
SYSTEM LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SYSTEM LIFTING
THRU THE GRTLKS APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAK IN THE CANADIAN
GLOBAL AFTER 42 HRS. OVER THE PAC NW/SWRN CANADA... BY 60 HRS
THE CANADIAN LOOKS A TAD WEAK AT THE CORE OF THE TROF NEAR
THE WA/BC BORDER. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A MYSTERIOUS
DEEPENING 42-48 HRS BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS.
OTHERWISE THE TRUSTED MODEL BLEND SHOULD OFFER A GOOD
SOLN FOR SIGNIFICANT FEATURES SFC/ALOFT OVER THE CONUS AND
SRN CANADA.

REGARDING HRCN ISABEL... THE ETA REMAINS THE FARTHEST LEFT
SOLN WITH THE TRACK... REACHING NEAR 25.9N 72.1W AT 60 HRS. GFS
PSN IS NEAR 28.0N 70.8W. THE UKMET IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NW OF THE
GFS AT 60 HRS... NEAR 28.8N 71.1W... WHILE THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS
TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS/UKMET... NEAR 28.9N 72.8W. THE FACT THAT
MDL FCSTS FROM THE LAST DAY OR SO HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOO
SLOW IN CARRYING ISABEL TO THE WNW SEEMS TO SUPPORT LEANING
TOWARD A FASTER SOLN ... WHILE INITIALIZATIONS THAT APPEAR TOO
WEAK WITH THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE NEW ENG/ATLC MID LVL
RIDGE MAY CAST SOME DOUBT UPON THE FARTHEST RIGHT SOLNS.
PLEASE CONSULT TPC/NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST DETAILS
REGARDING HRCN ISABEL.

RAUSCH

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Tomorrow am models should be interesting!