Isabel starting to head north?

jaysonx · #1 Postby **jaysonx** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:08 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

It looks like to me in the last few frames that the storm is starting to turn more north.. or is it just the eyewall getting smaller?

Kind of hard to tell ATM.

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:14 pm

It's gonna take several more frames to be sure. I don't hink it is personally. It looks more to me like an eyewall replacement cycle or a possible beginning of some weakening.

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:15 pm

calidoug · #4 Postby **calidoug** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:36 pm

No, if anything, more of a W movement recently.

Isabel is battling whatever disturbed the outflow on the W side.

It's hard to tell, based on WV loops, if there's a SSW flow, or actually some sort of NNE flow that Isabel has been working her way across/into.

The Annular eye has not lost symmetry for a long time-- but it just did, and there's a very warm arc in the NW section of the CDO.

Of course, we enter the satellite eclipse just now.

Either the annular nature could be collapsing, or she'll rally and regain eye symmetry...

wrkh99 · #5 Postby **wrkh99** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:40 pm

Looks like she will be a cat 5 again tomorrow

Josephine96 · #6 Postby **Josephine96** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:44 pm

I believe it's just an eyewall replacement cycle like was stated above.. In my opinion.. if "the turn" doesn't start by 73 west.. Florida may wanna become 1 of the states preparing..

southerngale · #7 Postby **southerngale** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:47 pm

I "think" the turn isn't supposed to start until about 71W Josephine but don't quote me on that.

As far as Isabel starting to head north now, I don't see it......still looks about wnw to me.

#8 Postby **Deenac813** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 6:56 am

I wish she would turn already! I do not looking at the satellite showing Isabel right off the coast from me! I know it is not coming to me but it still looks eerie..

tropical · #9 Postby **tropical** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:36 am

La da dee da dum... still waiting to see that turn already!

#10 Postby **alicia-w** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:45 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

looks like it's stalled to me. at least in this one.

mf_dolphin · #11 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:23 am

I agree Alicia-w! She definitely slowed overnight but it looks like the more northward track has started. By the 5Pm if not the 11AM we should begin to see the shift in the track plot.

#12 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:39 am

It looks like a stall, (agree with Alicia) the kind you can get before a turn. She is also starting to get stretched NW-SE. This is usually an indication of a turn coming soon.
She does not look as strong on IR, dry air coming in.

chadtm80 · #13 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:42 am

Looks like a 310 heading has begain to me..

weatherFrEaK · #14 Postby **weatherFrEaK** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:47 am

Lowpressure wrote:She does not look as strong on IR, dry air coming in.

Look here...<br>http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html<br> Definitely some dry air being entrained right towards the center.

jaysonx · #15 Postby **jaysonx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:14 am

What do you know, it looks like I was probably right all along.

ColdFront77 · #16 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:46 pm

No one finds it interesting that Isabel slowed down last night, made a turn and slowed downed again (almost stalled) and a yet to be determined motion coming this afternoon?

Isabel starting to head north?

Isabel starting to head north?

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