Whats going on with Isabel? Discussion-

[Stormchaser16]

I woke up this morning to find an increasingly ragged looking hurricane. Throughout the day the system has weakened and has become ever more unhealthy looking. What is causing this however, when will it stop, and should the east coast be a little less worried now? Well let me try to answer these questions here.

1: What is causing this weakening?
Many have commented that Isabel looks like it hit a brick wall, they said it in a joking manner however they were more or less right on the money.
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wx/satellite/
If you take a look at an animated water vapor loop, BOOM you see Isabel stop immediately and begin to head more NW or even NNW. It quickly found the weakeness in the ridge and the turn was so sudden that it basically shocked the system and the west side caved in essentially. Also Isabel LOST its annular charecteristics as I mentioned yesterday and today it further shows that through the contracting even collapsing of the eye and the eyewall. The system also dealt with some minimal shear for quite some time, that broke up the western edge. There was also a blob of convection off the NC coast that put a major damper on the northern edge of Isabel.

2: When will this weakening trend cease?
It will not, at least not soon anyway. The western side of the storm looks great, it has been cooling off recently and the structure has improved. However with the amazing sudden turn the East side has and may not have a chance to redevelop. The eye is almost exposed on the eastern side, and until convection wraps back around expect Isabel to continue to weaken. The 5PM advisory will most likely show a cat 3 storm somewhere in the 115-125 MPH range, with the possibility of 130 only because the western side still looks quite healthy. The shear has been relaxing and is forecast to stay that way until tommorow and Wednesday. That gives this thing about 12-24 hours to get back up in strength before more shear affects it. However I do not expect the system to regain much strength if any between today and tommorow only because it is so dead from the sudden turn that it took.

3: Should the east coast be any less worried?
Well yes and no....... My original prediction was a cat 2 at landfall and I am still sticking with that prediction. I think winds will be 105-110 at landfall possibly 115. but that wont make much of a difference in overall affect. I am sticking to the thought that this system weakened to dramatically to make a siginifigant comeback in strength. HOWEVER, it will still bring alot of rain and wind to wherever it makes landfall and people should not be letting there guards down at all. If you are in its path then you should be getting prepared for a strong hurricane to make landfall at your location.

4: Where will its location be at landfall?
I see no reason to change from a forecast of a landfall in Northern NC or VA and then moving quickly NW inland from there. Affecting areas as far north as New jersey but not with a major hit. I would expect the worst to be in a small area on the NE side of where the system makes landfall.

[JCT777]

Thanks for the update, Ryan. Good analysis!