My 11 p.m. EST Isabel fcst: landfall near Ocracoke, NC

JetMaxx · #1 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:49 pm

Isabel is moving slowly....crawling toward the NNW this evening. I expect this general motion to continue for the next 36 hours with a gradual increase in forward speed....after which I expect Isabel to accelerate more toward the northwest and make landfall on the North Carolina coast between Morehead City and Cape Hatteras as a powerful borderline category 3/4 hurricane on Thursday morning.

CURRENTLY:

MON SEP 15
11 PM EST...26.1N - 70.0W...105 KTS
--------------------------------------

FORECAST:

TUE SEP 16
11 AM EST...27.4N - 70.5W...105 KTS
11 PM EST...29.0N - 71.5W...105 KTS

WED SEP 17
11 AM EST...31.0N - 72.5W...110 KTS
11 PM EST...32.8N - 74.0W...115 KTS

THU SEP 18
11 AM EST...34.8N - 75.7W...120 KTS (NEARING LANDFALL BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND CAPE HATTERAS, NC)
11 PM EST...38.0N - 78.0W....75 KTS
(EAST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA)

FRI SEP 19
11 AM EST...42.5N - 79.5W....50 KTS (NEAR BUFFALO, NY)
11 PM EST...EXTRATROPICAL NORTH OF SUDBURY, CANADA

debbiet · #2 Postby **debbiet** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:56 pm

Hi!...Just heard Dr. Lyons say that there is nothing favorable for further development in the forcast and that the storm would be minimal Cat 3 at landfall. In fact, he said that all odds were against any strengthening...as someone who knows NOTHING and who lives in coastal VA, what causes you to think it will strengthen so much when NHC says not. Just curious and nervous :-)

JetMaxx · #3 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:15 pm

1) Gulfstream waters off the Carolina coast have been untouched by a significant hurricane since Irene in 1999...which means high octane fuel when Isabel crosses it.

2) I see a synoptic weather pattern very similar to when hurricane Hugo made landfall in 1989...the hurricane will IMO turn northwest underneath high pressure, enhancing outflow and reducing shear the last 12-24 hours before landfall. A similar type of pattern also caused hurricane Hazel to intensify to a cat-4 hurricane near landfall at Myrtle Beach in October 1954.

I'm giving my educated analysis and opinion based on 30 years of hurricane research...based on previous hurricanes I've studied and experienced. Does it guarantee this hurricane will explosively deepen just before landfall? No....but it does mean I see a weather pattern conductive to intensification....and in my judgement, hurricane Isabel will be stronger at landfall than Dr Lyons believes, and apparently Miles Lawrence. In 60-72 hours we'll know who's analysis was correct.

SacrydDreamz · #4 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:57 pm

An abation of dry air being drawn into the storm will help.. as will the departing ULL..

GalvestonDuck · #5 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:00 pm

Good thing Ocracoke was the first place evac'd earlier today.

summerwx · #6 Postby **summerwx** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 8:16 pm

You were wrong Jetmaxx. Isabel was barely a hurricane, and didn't make landfall at Ocracoke either. It made landfall at Drum Inlet.

Lindaloo · #7 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 8:54 pm

Actually summerwx.. Perry was right on!! Even his thinking of OcraCoke. Why don't you ask the people on the NC and Virginia Coasts if Isabel was barely a hurricane.

Why don't you ask the people who have still not checked in yet that are our friends in those areas.

JetMaxx · #8 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 9:07 pm

summerwx wrote:You were wrong Jetmaxx. Isabel was barely a hurricane, and didn't make landfall at Ocracoke either. It made landfall at Drum Inlet.

1) Isabel was a 90 kt cat-2...not "barely" a hurricane.

2) Drum Inlet is less than 10 miles from Ocracoke.

#9 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 9:11 pm

As a matter of fact summerwx, I can be one of the first to agree that Isabel was not the strongest of hurricanes at all--coming from a person right in the middle of the core disaster area. I only recorded a sustained wind of 41mph, with a gust of 65mph; the electronic instrument is unobstructed and it is even 20 feet high, so we didn't even experience hurricane conditions and it looks like a bomb zone Of course, tip your hat his landfall prediction; that was a three-day forecast that was pinned almost directly; the difference betw. Drum Inlet and Ocracoke is a diminutive distance at that forecast period.

#10 Postby **abajan** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 9:14 pm

JetMaxx wrote:
summerwx wrote:You were wrong Jetmaxx. Isabel was barely a hurricane, and didn't make landfall at Ocracoke either. It made landfall at Drum Inlet.

1) Isabel was a 90 kt cat-2...not "barely" a hurricane.

2) Drum Inlet is less than 10 miles from Ocracoke.

Edit by mf_dolphin

Okay now, let's all just cool it and take 20 deep breaths, shall we?

WARNING: I was just kiddin'. If you take 20 deep breaths in a row you'll probably pass out. DON'T DO IT.

mf_dolphin · #11 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 9:20 pm

Good advice! ;-)

My 11 p.m. EST Isabel fcst: landfall near Ocracoke, NC

My 11 p.m. EST Isabel fcst: landfall near Ocracoke, NC

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