Landfall North of the Models???

[bel88]

The 11 pm discussion made no reference of a possible landfall North of where the models. I think this is possible due to the fact that Isable has not moved very much over the past 6 hours. (almost stalled) this could have a major affect on the future track of the hurricane. I feel that the second trough that is moving east possibly could pick her up and send her up the East Coast with landfall near NJ/NY/NE.

Any thoughts

[Anonymous]

I think that is a good possibility. So far Izzy has only made it 70 west. It seems possible that Izzy could pass the outer banks if she was traveling at a good speed before moving wnw or nw. I wonder what intensity Izzy would have left after traveling all the way to NJ or Long Island.

[jaysonx]

My guess would be cat 1 or tropical storm given the already weakened state that it is in.

[JetMaxx]

In a 72-96 hour forecast there is a certain margin for error....

It's not likely that Isabel will make landfall in either Atlantic City, New Jersey or Myrtle Beach, South Carolina...but they are both inside the error margin. The reason NHC is more concerned with New England is that area will east of the storm track...where hurricane force winds and high tides will extend much farther from the center than west of where landfall occurs.

As large as this hurricane will be at landfall, it won't surprise me if there are hurricane force wind gusts as far north as Long Island's south facing beaches, even if landfall is near Hatteras (don't forget the tight pressure gradient between the hurricane and strong high pressure to it's east -- that will amplify the force of the wind east of Isabel's center for a long distance over the water).

[Anonymous]

As large as this hurricane will be at landfall, it won't surprise me if there are hurricane force wind gusts as far north as Long Island's south facing beaches, even if landfall is near Hatteras (don't forget the tight pressure gradient between the hurricane and strong high pressure to it's east -- that will amplify the force of the wind east of Isabel's center for a long distance over the water).

Wow. I hope the ground is not too saturated while those high winds are blowing around the Mid-Atlantic and NE. I read that during the 1938 hurricane 2 billion trees came down!
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/