My 5 p.m. Isabel analysis/forecast (TUE 9/16)

[JetMaxx]

After weakening significantly overnight and this morning, hurricane Isabel appears to be holding it's own this afternoon. The outflow pattern looks favorable for strengthening, as does the latest model guidance...

The interaction between building high pressure off the northeast U.S. coast and a digging trough forecast to become negatively tilted should cause the hurricane to accelerate toward the NNW, and veer more toward the northwest as landfall approaches. I now expect landfall to occur late Thursday morning along the North Carolina coast between Morehead City and Cape Hatteras as very dangerous strong category three hurricane....borderline category 4 in the same intensity range as both Frederic (1979) and Betsy (1965) were at landfall.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that Isabel could become a category 4 hurricane prior to landfall given the synoptic similarities to past severe hurricanes such as Hugo (1989) and Hazel (1954)....which would be a record breaking hurricane for the Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout area (record hurricane for Hatteras is the September 1944 hurricane....130 mph @ 947 mb).

One thing is clear to me.....Isabel is likely to strengthen prior to landfall, and is going to be an extremely large hurricane, which will cause hurricane conditions over a large area of the coastline from North Carolina to Maryland....with tropical storm force winds and coastal flooding as far north as Long Island; and possibly southern New England.
The tight pressure gradient between the hurricane and strong high pressure offshore will only enhance winds and tides hundreds of miles east of the hurricane track.

I also expect strong, even hurricane force winds to spread well inland along/ east of the path of the eye. Please take the warnings from the National Hurricane Center seriously, and if in a vunerable area to flooding/ storm surge, or are ordered to evaculate...DO IT, and without delay. I expect Isabel to accelerate toward the coast, and I am being conservative in my estimate. Isabel could well be moving in excess of 30 mph once onshore in North Carolina

Here's my forecast track and intensity:

CURRENTLY:

TUE SEPTEMBER 16, 2003
5 PM EST...27.8N - 71.4W....90 KTS (959 MB)

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FORECAST:

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 17, 2003

5 AM EST...29.2N - 72.0W....90 KTS

5 PM EST...31.2N - 72.9W...100 KTS



THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 18, 2003

5 AM EST...33.5N - 74.9W...110 KTS (120 miles SSE - Cape Hatteras, NC)

10 AM EST..34.9N - 76.1W...115 KTS (Landfall near Ocracoke, NC)

5 PM EST...36.4N - 77.5W....85 KTS (Near Roanoke Rapids, NC)



FRI SEPTEMBER 19, 2003

5 AM EST...40.0N - 79.0W....55 KTS (Near Johnstown, PA)

5 PM EST...46.5N - 78.5W....EXTRATROPICAL/ 45 KTS (Over southwestern Quebec)

[Mattie]

That makes it all pretty real and upfront. Thanks Perry.

Time to duck, cover and run for those in the path. Take care all.

[tazdevil]

What can I expect as far as winds on the northern eastern shore?

[JetMaxx]

tazdevil, I'm theorizing at least gusts of 50-70 mph along the Delaware beaches....and possibly hurricane force, depending on the exact track and size of Isabel's wind field. I expect hurricane force winds, at least in gusts from Ocean City, Maryland southward...along with serious coastal flooding and beach erosion.

[summerwx]

You frightened people for no reason. Isabel wasn't a major hurricane, and certainly nothing close to your forecast. From now on I'm listening to Dr Steve Lyons.

[Lindaloo]

You frightened people for no reason. Isabel wasn't a major hurricane, and certainly nothing close to your forecast. From now on I'm listening to Dr Steve Lyons.

Jetmaxx was right on in his thinking. Feel free to register at TWC.

[Stormsfury]

You frightened people for no reason. Isabel wasn't a major hurricane, and certainly nothing close to your forecast. From now on I'm listening to Dr Steve Lyons.

Wrong again ... he practically nailed the landfall point within 10 miles from 3 days out. Intensity was slightly lower than JetMaxx's (or my intensity forecast for that matter) ... but the bottom line is people prepared as if it would come in as a CAT 3, which I advised as well ...

What is your beef with JetMaxx? You've posted on 4 different threads attacking him ...

Did you ever even look at any of the RECON reports before from the points before landfall? Isabel without sustainable deep convection had between 100 and 111 kts at flight level (700 mb) which NORMALLY would equate to 115 mph at the surface SUSTAINED. The problem that Isabel couldn't maintain deep convection except only in bursts towards the end SAVED NC and points north from having to deal with even a stronger storm. The wind field and the structure of the hurricane still was able to produce much higher wind gusts than would normally be seen because of the well-established wind field aloft. Isabel was bad, but it could have been a lot worse.

SF

[mf_dolphin]

I second the TWC idea.... if this keeps up I may help him

Summerwx, at least you may want to try and gets your facts straight. JetMaxx was very very close to the land fall and if Isabel had been able to spin the winds aloft down to the surface then his intensity may have been dead on as well. NC still got hit pretty hard as well as Virginia and some of the surrounding areas.

[summerwx]

Sorry I ruffled feathers but in my opinion, only professional forecasters with meteorology or atmospheric science degrees should ever post hurricane forecasts (especially when they appear to be authenic without any disclaimer warning the public it isn't official).

"Amateur" doctors without a medical license would be arrested and thrown in jail for giving medical advice on the internet. So would anyone giving legal information without passing the bar exam. Why should amateur forecasters posting alarming weather forecasts be any different? Hurricane Isabel was never a threat to become a major hurricane at landfall. Ask wxman57, because he also got on Jetmaxx's case for posting unrealistic and alarmist hurricane forecasts contrary to the official TPC outlook.

I'm not trashing Jettmaxx, only letting him know he was very wrong for the alarmist intensity forecasts that he posted, and I didn't appreciate it. I called him no names, yet he responded by calling me an idiot. He should either be forced to apologise to me or be banned from this forum.

My apologies for upsetting you. I should have handled my disagreement with Jetmaxx via private messenger. I realize that now and am sorry.

Stan

[vbhoutex]

Excuse me Summerwx, but you are barking up the wrong tree here. This is a public internet forum and does not in any way shape of form claim to be an official weather source. We have disclaimers on the site and you will find that people are encouraged to seek official forecasts to make any decisions.
Which part of the word MY do you not understand?? Perry uses that word in everyone of his forecasts and NEVER even trys to make his forecasts seem official. He makes sure that he states more than once in any forecast I have seen him do that it is his forecast and no one elses. He also is carefl to state the reasoning behind his forecasts, unlike many others. If you want to go after someone go after someone who is claiming to be a met. He never has and never will claim to be one even though if you knew enough about him to really say anything he has a sterling reputation throughout the Internet weather community, with both amatuer and professionals alike.
I have seen no one else complaining about his "alarmist" posts and I suggest you are the one who needs to apologize to Perry here, not the other way around!!

[Lindaloo]

I never read any posts by wxman57 "getting on JetMaxx's case" All I have ever read was "great analysis" posted by wxman to JetMaxx. Then they would have a discussion. Very mature.

[Jack8631]

Let me get this straight...from 48 hours out, Perry nailed the landfall within like 10 miles, and predicted wind speeds that were supported by upper atmosphere recordings even if they weren't carrying to the surface.....
Perry probably has more time researching tropical weather events than most Meteorologists I know....
Perry, did you really call this guy an idiot? He must mave really plucked your last nerve; that doesn't sound like you!