Izzy gone..What next?

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HuffWx
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Izzy gone..What next?

#1 Postby HuffWx » Fri Sep 19, 2003 9:44 am

I am a true blue winter fan..

Next big item is the winter outlook from Keith Allen.This is for the DC metro area He is an untrained met who has developed an advanced method to analog winters. His accuracy is well documented. He is great with overall patterns and trends.
Has about a 90% accuracy if you score him loosely.
Winter 89-90 Called for the warmup in Jan.
95-96 called for a severe winter with 45 inches of snow @ DCA..they ended up with 46.2
2001-2002- Went warm and mild while the rest said cold. Called the three week cold snap with the bigger storm south of DC ( NC/VA event..14 inches at RDU)
02-03-Called for most intese winter since 96...30 inches at IAD and 25 at DCA. Was low on the snow..but did call for a blizzard in Feb.

Huff
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JCT777
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#2 Postby JCT777 » Fri Sep 19, 2003 9:50 am

I am ready for winter too. Would be interested in seeing Keith Allen's take on the upcoming winter, as well as some of the notable mets (DT, Joe B, LC, GG, etc.). Personally, my early thoughts are that this winter will start cold and end somewhat warm in the east (specifically - Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and Northeast). Snowfall in these areas will be above normal, but not as much above normal as last year. This is subject to change at the slightest whim, of course. :wink:
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#3 Postby wow » Fri Sep 19, 2003 12:41 pm

Yes, the odds are against a snowier winter compared to last year...

...however they are only odds and not a garauntee. I'm anxiously awaiting KA's outlook, Joe D'Aleo's pre-outlook in early Oct, and Joe Bastardi's prelim forecast next month or so.

This winter could go against the grain and turn out twice as bad as 02/03!
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Scott_inVA
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#4 Postby Scott_inVA » Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:10 pm

wow wrote:Yes, the odds are against a snowier winter compared to last year...



GOOD! Winter is just a break between hurricanes and tornadoes to me.
Besides, I hate snow and even break out at the site of white sheets.

Huff wants the Blue Ridge to have white tops 24/7/365. :wink:


Scott
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#5 Postby Guest » Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:33 pm

WoW Scott...................Sounds like HD has gotten to you with his snow nazi self...........LOL...............I for one love a snowy winter as most others probably already know!
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