First Arctic Outbreak of Fall for Plains?

#1 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 10:00 am

JB says this morning watch out middle to late next week for an arctic outbreak in the Plains down to the Gulf.

Wonder if our temps here in central Texas will truly cool down. We keep getting milquetoast fronts that wash out just north of us!

Any thoughts?

JCT777 · #2 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 10:05 am

If JB said it, do we really trust it? :wink:

Of course, I am all for an Arctic Blast. I want nights with temps in the 30's and days in the 50's. That is perfect fall weather! 8-)

VanceWxMan · #3 Postby **VanceWxMan** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 10:08 am

The GFS is showing a VERY strong Packed Cold Front that will move into the Plains region quickly. This looks to be the first real strong push of the season. Now this is earlyer then usual and just strengthens my feeling that we are going to have a colder than usual winter in the South Central.

Aaron

StormCrazyIowan · #4 Postby **StormCrazyIowan** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 1:07 pm

EEK! Its cold enough right now! :lol:

ONLY 60° with 15 mph winds gusting to 22mph!!!! BRRRRRRRR! lol Saying that just yesterday I was hot!!!

Guest · #5 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 1:08 pm

I as well have been watching this and was gonna bring it up here as well because of the GFS honking this for a week now about the big cool down headed for the eastern areas....................As far as JB goes i will let his TRACK record speak for him!.....................Either way it wont suprise me a bit to see some big time cooling comming down late next week with even a touch of snow possible in the northern plains!............................But yea with all the cold air starting to visit Canada expect to see the snowpack rise which along with a few other things should lend to a cold and snowy winter down into parts of the US as was such the case last winter!..........................

#6 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 1:26 pm

Some of JB's reasoning for the outbreak was SOI going negative and some teleconnections with tropical activity in the Pacific which suggested a significant trough complex helping to bring down the Arctic air.

I realize one has to consider the source, so I try to balance what I read from the "experts."

Will be interesting to watch next week.

Hey King, hope you're right about snow in Texas. We had a 2-day event last winter here in Austin but it was more of a sleet-freezing rain storm than actual snowfall.

#7 Postby **wx247** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 2:37 pm

What types of temps would we expect to see in the plains if the GFS verifies?

VanceWxMan · #8 Postby **VanceWxMan** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 4:47 pm

30's in the Northern US and Lower 40's in the plains as cool as mid 50's in Texas. If this pans out it will get chilly.

Aaron

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 5:57 pm

If this oncoming Arctic Outbreak verifies, then northern Virginia will be in the mid/upper 40s in the daytime!!!!!! That means mid-upper 20s at night!!

BRING IT ON!!!! I want a BAD winter!!! I want my snow!!! I can't wait to shovel snow!!!

-Jeb

#10 Postby **wx247** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 5:58 pm

Wow! ~~~ That would be chilly. ~~~

breeze · #11 Postby **breeze** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 6:01 pm

LOL, Jeb! Send some of that
cold stuff South to ME! :ggreen:

Sean in New Orleans · #12 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 6:03 pm

I'm also seeing a frigid outbreak with this system. I think it will catch many offguard. It will be interesting, as this system approaches, to see where we will have a freeze line. This line could be a shocker to many in the lower 48. Stay tuned...

VanceWxMan · #13 Postby **VanceWxMan** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 6:06 pm

Looking at the GFS the 540 thickness line (snow/rain line) stays up by the Dakotas.

Aaron

VanceWxMan · #14 Postby **VanceWxMan** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 6:11 pm

Now the GFS on Oct 5th shows the 540 line moving all the way down to MO and Northern KS. Something to watch for... but a weakness of the GFS is after 7 days. The model does not verify well after that point.

Aaron

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 6:12 pm

Now what I'd like to experience is a Little Ice Age.........yeah I know.....It'll never happen......but it would sure be nice!!

Can you see it? The Potomac River frozen 8 feet thick......never thaws in the "summer", snow starts flying around Aug. 20th, lasts til early June. Two to three foot snows are common.........we think nothing of high temps in the negative teens in Washington DC........People have dogsled races east of Virginia Beach in the winter. The Iditarod East is run yearly from the southern extent of winter pack ice off North Carolina in February clear up to Newfoundland and back......The object of the race is to complete it before the ice breaks up............if you get back to off Cape Hatteras as the ice breaks you are disqualified.

Now that's MY kind of winter.

-Jeb

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 6:20 pm

Now that I have verified that I am in the proper spirit of our next oncoming winter.........lol........

I would like all of you here to teach me about how you know this cold air is coming down.

What models do you use? Where do you go?

Does Izzy going up into Canada and interacting with the PV up there have anything to do with an impending cold air intrusion down into the Lower 48? What are the synoptic features to look for with a frigid air intrusion?

Please teach me EVERYTHING about cyclonic development, synoptic interaction, what causes, enables, promotes these big cold air intrusions and what sets up the lows in the NW GOM that track east then NNE up the East Coast and turn into monster Nor 'easters?

-Jeb

#17 Postby **wx247** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 6:20 pm

Jeb, have you heard of northern Alaska and Siberia?

breeze · #18 Postby **breeze** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 6:20 pm

The Tennessee River frozen over would be a sight...
ahhh...but, back to reality...it was good while
it lasted....*sigh....

#19 Postby **wx247** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 6:22 pm

wx247 wrote:Jeb, have you heard of northern Alaska and Siberia?

Oops... this was in reply to your comment about an Ice Age in DC... not about your wanting to learn about weather patterns and models. Sorry!

Anonymous · #20 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 19, 2003 6:26 pm

wx247 wrote:Jeb, have you heard of northern Alaska and Siberia?

Yeppers.......I have always wanted to take a vacation there. I would shovel snow and kick back and enjoy the cool weather. No more fleas, flys or bugs, and plenty of nice clean cool air and pristine untracked snow..........

-Jeb

First Arctic Outbreak of Fall for Plains?

First Arctic Outbreak of Fall for Plains?

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