Next wave to exit

chadtm80 · #1 Postby **chadtm80** » Sun Sep 21, 2003 8:09 pm

Looks pretty ragid.. http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/arad/f ... TROPIR.GIF and it aint seen nothing yet.. hehehe

#2 Postby **abajan** » Sun Sep 21, 2003 8:21 pm

You know, I was just about to post a comment about that wave. That's some pretty intense convection but it will probably diminish as it moves into the Atlantic. Climatalogically speaking, if it were late August or even early September I'd be more concerned about it. However, it is still prudent to keep an eye on it.

#3 Postby **LarryWx** » Sun Sep 21, 2003 8:40 pm

Threats to the U.S. from Cape Verde storms after 9/20 have been very few and far between over the last 152 years. Going back to 1851, records show that only three storms first became at least a T.D. after 9/20 east of 50W and south of 20N and subsequently hit the U.S. with the latest cyclone formation being 9/25:

1) Lili of 2002 which formed on 9/21 and hit LA
2) Inez of 1966 which formed on 9/21 and hit FL
3) Storm #9 of 1893 which formed on 9/25 and hit SC, the latest in the season C.V. storm on record to later hit the U.S.

So, based on 152 years of climo, once 9/25 is reached the chances are next to zero for any additional storms that first form east of 50W and south of 20N to later hit the U.S. That leaves only 4 days for a TD to form out there and subsequently hit the U.S.

Based on the above regarding potential U.S. threats, it is almost time to start focusing much more on T.C.'s that form WEST of 50W and especially the western Caribbean after 10/1.

AussieMark · #4 Postby **AussieMark** » Sun Sep 21, 2003 10:17 pm

It also depends what role the Dry air has but I would say that if it were to develop I would say the southern portion is the more likely.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sun Sep 21, 2003 11:17 pm

The development in the last third of September, October and November is pretty much like June and July.

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 22, 2003 5:55 am

Time is running out for that area to develop systems as climo turns more to the GOM,caribbean and western atlantic but never say never as every season is different and the CV season lasts a little longer in some seasons than others so let's see what happens.

#7 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Sep 22, 2003 1:38 pm

No need to really worry about anything developing from Cape Verde anymore. The Cape Verde season will be winding down in the next week or so.

Next wave to exit

Next wave to exit

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