My local NWS has a 30% chance of rain for my forecast zone for tomorrow and tomorrow night; and 20% for Thursday. I personally think that this is what will happen (let's see how right I am):
Tonight: Low clouds and fog giving way to increasing high and mid level clouds. Low in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Wednesday: Considerable cloudiness. 30% chance of showers with a less than 20% chance of a thunderstorm. High in the upper 70s. Humid conditions as well.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of showers. Low in the lower 60s. Humid conditions as well.
Thursday: Cloudy in the morning with a slight chance of showers, then clearing. High in the upper 70s. Chance of rain less than 20%.
My thoughts on TD Marty and its affects on my area
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Probably only a 10-20% chance of measureable rain, IMO, on Wed, and mainly in the evening and overnight. Better chance of just some sprinkles because the moisture is forecasted to remain mainly above 600mb, and any rain that does fall has to fall through a 'dry' layer which will cause a lot of virga. No trigger for showers Thurs even if there is abundant moisture, so would just go with partly cloudy.
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weatherlover427
:oTrue, but I disagree with the NWS SD 30% chance. Where, I am I think it's pretty much 0% chance, OC...10%, San Diego 20%. There's a better chance that the deep layer moisture will stay well to the east as it has been today. That upper level low of the coast isn't moving in a big hurry so I think the models are overdoing it with the amount of moisture they're advecting over the entire SD and LA CWA.
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weatherlover427
Here's why I think models are wrong...
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Oxnard/javaLink ... km.wv.html
Notice there's SW (dry) flow over Baja pushing the moisture NE. There is some SE flow, but it's much further north toward Ventura and Santa Barbara counties. Any moisture from Marty is going to have a very tough time pushing westward.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Oxnard/javaLink ... km.wv.html
Notice there's SW (dry) flow over Baja pushing the moisture NE. There is some SE flow, but it's much further north toward Ventura and Santa Barbara counties. Any moisture from Marty is going to have a very tough time pushing westward.
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weatherlover427
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weatherlover427
CAZ041-241130-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
845 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2003
UPDATED
.TONIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEACHES TO NEAR 80 INLAND.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.THURSDAY...AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND.
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS FROM THE 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE MID 80S INLAND.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS FROM THE 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE MID 80S INLAND.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND.
Darn LOX and their pessimism
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
845 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2003
UPDATED
.TONIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEACHES TO NEAR 80 INLAND.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.THURSDAY...AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND.
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS FROM THE 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE MID 80S INLAND.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS FROM THE 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE MID 80S INLAND.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND.
Darn LOX and their pessimism
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weatherlover427
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2003
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM T.D. MARTY IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR SKY TONIGHT AND IS HELPING TO DISRUPT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. OVERALL...SHOULD BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR SOUTH COAST AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INLAND. MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS NEAR 1800 FEET PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST. A WEAK-MODERATE NORTH TO SOUTH SFC GRADIENT THROUGH SBA COUNTY WILL DELAY ANY ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE ONSHORE PRES GRAD TRENDS CERTAINLY SUGGEST A COOLER DAY THAN TODAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS FROM T.D. MARTY WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT REMAINS. RIGHT NOW IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL GET A LOT OF CLOUD COVER FROM MARTY. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE THAT STREAKS ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 500 MB...AND THIS MAY LEND TO SOME SPRIKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MAJOR UNLESS THE REMNANTS DECIDE TO MAKE A BEE-LINE FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH DOESN'T SEEM LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO ADJUST TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE THINGS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2003
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM T.D. MARTY IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR SKY TONIGHT AND IS HELPING TO DISRUPT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. OVERALL...SHOULD BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR SOUTH COAST AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INLAND. MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS NEAR 1800 FEET PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST. A WEAK-MODERATE NORTH TO SOUTH SFC GRADIENT THROUGH SBA COUNTY WILL DELAY ANY ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE ONSHORE PRES GRAD TRENDS CERTAINLY SUGGEST A COOLER DAY THAN TODAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS FROM T.D. MARTY WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT REMAINS. RIGHT NOW IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL GET A LOT OF CLOUD COVER FROM MARTY. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE THAT STREAKS ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 500 MB...AND THIS MAY LEND TO SOME SPRIKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MAJOR UNLESS THE REMNANTS DECIDE TO MAKE A BEE-LINE FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH DOESN'T SEEM LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO ADJUST TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE THINGS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
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