Morning thoughts...

[Josephine96]

Well.. Despite it's close proximity to land.. {Bermuda}.. at least Juan is a fish.. TD 16/Kate on the other hand may get interesting if she keeps moving WNW and doesn't slow down..

Just a tad bit.. Maybe I'll have more later

[JCT777]

Yes, it is good for Bermuda that Juan is not a hurricane and will soon be moving away. As far as TD16/Kate is concerned - I believe will not be a fish storm. :o

[Josephine96]

I do not believe Kate will be a fish either.. I just hope for the Carolina's and VA sake.. she doesn't go there.. Not saying I want her here.. but you know what I mean lol

[Anonymous]

Jim Cantore last night said he didnt believe the jet streak would push it away as models predict. He believes it will continue heading west.

[Josephine96]

Well if she keeps moving at a pretty good clip.. we may have to pay attention to her a lot sooner than we did with Isabel...

[LarryWx]

From 1851-2002, there were 39 T.S.+'s that were first declared a T.D.+ east of 55W and south of 20N ON OR AFTER 9/25. Only ONE of these 39 (or 3%) later hit the U.S. during the last 152 years. The climo odds are so low that I don't think it is something that warrants much "concern" for at least the next several days. The much bigger concern for the U.S. imo should be the MUCH more climatologically favorable western Caribbean and Gulf.

[Josephine96]

Only 1 out of 39 huh... Pretty astronomical odds... Hmm.. 2 out of 40? lol

[Steve H.]

Statistics don't impress me as far as actual weather, since each storm is different and has its own environmental setup, however it looks like the setup for TD #16 will take her out to sea. Center seems to be disceranble approaching 16N and moving NW. Looks like that trough will catch her. Interestingly the AVN/NOGAPS/GFDL show another area (which I believe to be th3e area of convection to 16's SE) developing just to the east of the Windwards at 144 hours. This shows up on the different models, and if 16 gets lifted to the NNE, the ridge will build over this "other" area of disturbed weather. In the meantime, watch the Northwest Caribbean. Not much model support, but the ECMWF shows a low developing and moving ala Michelle (south of Miami, then through the bahamas). Development is certainly possible in this area, and models often have trouble with evolving systems in the NW Carib. Cheers!!

[wxman57]

TD 16/Kate looks very "fishy" to me. Not one model brings it west. All models are forecating north then northeast movement. I see nothing to contradict that.

[Lowpressure]

Now models do not even bring it past 50 west.

[JtSmarts]

Katie looks like a fish to me. Future Larry on the other hand......

[WeatherEmperor]

Relax people. Have faith in the NHC forecast track for TD16. They have done a super job thus far this season and even they are indicating that this will be a fish.

[Trader Ron]

Fish...

[donsutherland1]

Josephine,

TD 16 will almost certainly recurve and avoid landfall. Both model guidance and seasonal climatology argue overwhelmingly against it ever making landfall.

As far as Hurricane Juan is concerned, landfall does appear quite likely even if it is in the Canadian Maritime region. At this time, I believe the TPC track is a good one and it is well-supported by analog data.

[Josephine96]

I do agree she's gonna curve. She's moving too north of west. We may have to worry about potential Larry here