5 PM advisory on cat 2 Juan=105 mph

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 3:41 pm

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... pt35us.htm

A wind warning is in effect for Nova Scotia.

Josephine96 · #2 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 3:44 pm

Sounds like Juan is not done strengthening with his winds up to 105. Even if he only clips the Canadian areas.. I hope he does no damage if anything at all. Even though he'll probably start weakening with the waters getting much colder.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 3:53 pm

I hope that Juan doesn't turn into a major cane because it only needs too get to 111 mph to get that status.

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 3:56 pm

You're right Cyclone. That could cause a little extra panic or at least concern for the Canadians. Lets' see.. Fabian was a major cane, Isabel was a major cane as well.. I predicted 3 major canes at seasons' end hmm lol

ChaserUK · #5 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 4:01 pm

WOW - that was a surprise - that is a big jump in 6 hours!

ChaserUK · #6 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 4:03 pm

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/169.jpg

weird how the surface of the cloud tops so flat and featureless too!

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 4:06 pm

Chaser if you haved known that Juan was going to be like this you would haved gone to Nova scotia? or Isabel was enough for you?

ChaserUK · #8 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 4:07 pm

cycloneye, Yes I am a bit late on Juan I think unless I was to leave now!!!!! Will have to wait and see what happens over the next week or two!

lilbump3000 · #9 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 4:10 pm

I think it would not make it to a cat. 3, if anything probably winds of 110MPH a strong cat. 2 thats about all

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 4:12 pm

Chaser unless you get into the concorde in a hurry to land in New York and then from there to Halifax.

ChaserUK · #11 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 4:14 pm

indeed, just was not thinking it would intenisify like that - do you or anyone have details on any historic rapaid developments for example, what in the quickest intensification of a hurricane, in what periods etc?

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 4:19 pm

Chaser Isabel did the same thing intensifying rapidly from a tropical storm to a cat 2 hurricane in 12 hours and from cat 2 to cat 5 in another 12 hours.But I know that Perry or other members will have those stats that you are asking.

ChaserUK · #13 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 4:27 pm

Kewl - I was thinking Isabel when I got the mail from NHC!!! Reckon it could stronger at all? Normally when NHC start using the words fluctuations means its peaked out or just not expected to intesify during the next 24 hours?

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 4:31 pm

Peaked out but maybe some up and downs in the area of 105 mph down to 100 or up to 110..

bahamaswx · #15 Postby **bahamaswx** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 7:47 pm

ChaserUK wrote:indeed, just was not thinking it would intenisify like that - do you or anyone have details on any historic rapaid developments for example, what in the quickest intensification of a hurricane, in what periods etc?

Typhoon Forrest in September 1983 in the Northwest Pacific Ocean
deepened by 100 mb (976 to 876 mb) in just under 24 hr. Estimated surface sustained winds increased a maximum of 30 kt in 6 hr and 85 kt in one day (from 65 to 150 kt).

Not sure on the Atlantic... but I believe Andrew's pressure dropped 92mb in 36hours.

AussieMark · #16 Postby **AussieMark** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 8:36 pm

I found some rapid intensification there are others

1979-David dropped by 54 mb starting approx August 27-28.

1983-Alicia dropped by 40 mb in 40 hours.

1987-Emily dropped 44 mb in 24 hours September 21/22.

1992-Andrew dropped 72 mb in 36 hours August 23/24.

1995-Opal dropped by 53 mb in 24 hours in 24 hours October 3/4.

1999-Irene dropped 20 mb in a 12 hour period On October 18.

200-Keith dropped 61 mb in a 37 hour period on starting September 29.

bahamaswx · #17 Postby **bahamaswx** » Sat Sep 27, 2003 8:45 pm

Ahh yes, Andrew had a total fall of 92mb from when it had a barely perceptible LLC to when it was at it's peak of 922mb... but during the actual rapid intensification period there was a fall of 72mb in 36hours.

I stand corrected.

5 PM advisory on cat 2 Juan=105 mph

5 PM advisory on cat 2 Juan=105 mph

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