KATE #22 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

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WTNT41 KNHC 010228
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2003

KATE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION LOCATED MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...45 KT...AND 45 KT
RESPECTIVELY FROM SAB...TAFB...AND KGWC. THE WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED PRIMARILY BASED ON A 21Z QUIKSCAT PASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
FORECASTS A WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THIS
MOTION IS A RESULT OF THE CYCLONE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF KATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AT DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE KATE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWEST AS IT NEARS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST LESS SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE CLOSELY. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST AS THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING KATE
OVER COOLER WATERS.

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 32.5N 37.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 32.5N 39.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 32.2N 41.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 32.0N 43.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 32.0N 45.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 32.5N 49.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 33.5N 52.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 35.5N 54.5W 60 KT