http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
Pressure is down from the last message and winds are up from that last one so what will the NHC do?
New vortex message=56 kts S Quad 1005 mbs
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cycloneye
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New vortex message=56 kts S Quad 1005 mbs
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Josephine96
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dixiebreeze
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cycloneye
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Remember politics involved here with the oil $$$$$$ people in the GOM .
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WeatherEmperor
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my view on this...
It looks more tropical, but still is somewhat attached to a frontal boundary. If it becomes tropical in the next 6-12 hours given the wind obs, a tropical storm would be warranted. Sustained winds are over tropical storm force in the west central gulf tonite and that is expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so.
Watch out for coastal flooding along the South Texas coast from baffin bay to the mouth of the rio grande river through the day tomorrow.
Jim
Watch out for coastal flooding along the South Texas coast from baffin bay to the mouth of the rio grande river through the day tomorrow.
Jim
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donsutherland1
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Re: New vortex message=56 kts S Quad 1005 mbs
Given its continuing organization--which again offers a reminder per earlier discussions that such systems should not be written off prematurely--satellite, pressure and wind data, I expect that this system will be recognized either this evening or tomorrow morning.
If the latest recon data holds up and its overall look continues to improve, I expect that it should be classified at 2.0 or 2.5 on the Dvorak scale (arguably it already meets such criteria).
Furthermore, I believe that this data will hold up. Although there is still considerable wind shear to its north, it is centered over an area of decreasing shear. It is also located over very warm waters (above 30C) with SST anomalies of 0.5C to 1.0C.
Overall, the environment is growing more favorable for development, which arguably has been ongoing all day as pressures have fallen steadily and reported maximum wind speeds have risen.
If the latest recon data holds up and its overall look continues to improve, I expect that it should be classified at 2.0 or 2.5 on the Dvorak scale (arguably it already meets such criteria).
Furthermore, I believe that this data will hold up. Although there is still considerable wind shear to its north, it is centered over an area of decreasing shear. It is also located over very warm waters (above 30C) with SST anomalies of 0.5C to 1.0C.
Overall, the environment is growing more favorable for development, which arguably has been ongoing all day as pressures have fallen steadily and reported maximum wind speeds have risen.
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