KATE #29 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

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WTNT41 KNHC 022102
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2003

KATE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL-
DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE AND GRADUALLY COOLING CONVETIVE TOPS IN THE
EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
80 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE INFRARED SATELLITE
ESTIMATES. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 255/9. KATE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
27N45W. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36-48 HR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES
WITH THIS AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AFTER 48 HR AS KATE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
WESTERLIES AT THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN WHEN AND HOW FAST. THIS PART OF
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE SPEED-WISE BETWEEN THE
FASTER UKMET AND THE SLOWER GFS...AND DIRECTION-WISE BETWEEN
FARTHER WEST NOGAPS AND THE FARTHER EAST GFS...UKMET... AND GFDL

KATE REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...OVER WARM WATER...AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE FAVORABLE CONDITION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME...AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT KATE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY
SHEAR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER 48 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 29.8N 45.2W 80 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 29.7N 46.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 29.7N 48.9W 90 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 30.0N 51.2W 90 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 30.5N 53.4W 90 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 33.0N 56.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 37.5N 57.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 45.0N 54.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL